IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM SALLY POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING… Tropical Storm Sally is set to be a potentially significant problem for parts of southern Alabama, northwest Florida, southern Mississippi, and eastern Louisiana. Excessive rain amounts (10-15″ of total rain!), flash flooding, river & creek flooding, tornadoes, high wind, storm surge, and coastal flooding will all be concerns over the next several days as Sally approaches and then potentially stalls midweek near or just west of our area. Unfortunately, our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida is set to be on the unstable eastern flank of the storm where the flow will be out of the south. This means we could have not only a long duration, dangerous heavy rain and flash flooding event near the coast, but perhaps also a long duration tornado threat that could last from Monday through Wednesday, including all of Tuesday. This special Sunday morning edition of the RedZone Weather forecast video is being produced as we have an imminent tropical threat due to Tropical Storm Sally. Details are below.
MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE IN COASTAL AREAS… Please understand, if you live in coastal areas of Alabama or northwest Florida (particularly in communities located south of Interstate 10), there is a high risk of what could be a significant flooding event due to Sally early this week. 8-12 inches will likely be total rain amounts in many spots in this zone, with isolated higher amounts of 12-15 inches of rain being possible.
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE INLAND… While the risk is lower, it certainly is NOT zero for inland areas in terms of the overall flash flooding risk setting up due to Tropical Storm Sally. There could be situations where rain bands set up over the same areas and train for hours. This could quickly become problematic for inland areas north of I-10.
RIVER & CREEK FLOODING POSSIBLE… It is a good thing that local creeks and rivers are generally running at average to below average stream flows as of today, because Sally will quickly cause many of our local streams to become full, if not go into flood stage. River and creek flooding could become an issue as early as Tuesday and extend long after the circulation of Sally departs from the Southeastern U.S. Coastal areas have a higher probability of river and creek flooding than inland areas, but the risk certainly is not zero in inland areas for river and creek flooding either. Be ready for possible river and creek flooding later this week!
INCREASING TORNADO RISK ON MONDAY… Tornadoes will become possible in the outer bands of Tropical Storm Sally on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours in coastal areas of northwest Florida and Alabama. This increasing tornado risk will spread inland gradually throughout the day on Monday. While the highest risk of having a tropical, spin-up tornado locally will happen in Baldwin, Mobile, Washington, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties, we can’t rule out any locales from this risk of isolated tornadoes in south Alabama or northwest Florida. The greatest tornado risk will probably happen Tuesday into Wednesday as Sally comes ashore near our area or just to the west. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings through Wednesday!
HIGH WIND POSSIBLE IN COASTAL AREAS… Coastal areas of Alabama have the highest chance of experiencing hurricane force wind gusts (in our local area). Tropical storm force winds may become possible along the northwest Florida coast. Based on the current forecast, high wind issues are not currently expected across inland areas of south Alabama. The exact future track of Sally will determine a lot about what areas have the highest sustained winds, since the core hurricane winds will be confined within 10-20 miles of the center of the storm most likely.
STORM SURGE, COASTAL FLOODING, RIP CURRENTS, HIGH WAVES… Due to the trajectory of Sally coming in from the southeast coupled with the angle of the coastline, storm surge may be enhanced across eastern Louisiana and coastal areas of Mississippi and Alabama. The official peak storm surge forecast graphic from NHC highlights a 6 to 9 feet storm surge being possible across much of eastern Louisiana and in areas of the Mississippi Coast east of Ocean Springs. 4 to 6 feet of storm surge is expected from Ocean Springs eastward to Dauphin Island. 2 to 4 feet of storm surge is expected along Mobile Bay (particularly the west side of the bay) and near the Alabama beaches. Minor 1-3 feet of surge is likely in northwest Florida.
DETAILED COUNTY-BY-COUNTY ASSESSMENT… If you missed my earlier post discussing each individual city and town in the local counties across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida, be sure to check it out here.
LANDFALL NEAR OR JUST WEST OF US; LOCAL AREA ON EAST SIDE… The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center currently shows a landfall of Sally being possible from Morgan City, Louisiana eastward to Orange Beach, Alabama. That is the CENTER point. Impacts will extend outward WELL away from the center point. The current thinking is that the center of circulation of Sally is likely to approach Louisiana or Mississippi as a hurricane Monday with landfall more likely on Tuesday. This scenario would place our entire local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida in the unstable eastern side of the storm, where the near constant flow of moisture off the northern Gulf of Mexico could create a dangerous flash flooding setup near the coast and the potential for a long form tornado threat. Even minor changes to the track forecast could put our region at a greater risk of stronger sustained winds. It is critical that we all up-to-date on the progress of Sally over the next 48-72 hours.
IMPACTS FROM SALLY LIKELY TO END BY THURSDAY AT LATEST… After several days of impacts, we see some light at the end of the tunnel late Wednesday into Thursday as the circulation of Sally begins to rapidly move northeast and out of our local area. Scattered storms will become the story on Thursday into Friday as our weather pattern begins to “normalize.”
HURRICANE PAULETTE THREATENING BERMUDA… Bermuda is under a Hurricane Warning today ahead of the arrival of a strengthening Hurricane Paulette. Further strengthening is expected, and Paulette will likely be a strong, category 2 hurricane as it moves near or perhaps right over Bermuda on Monday. After Paulette moves near Bermuda, the hurricane will rapidly accelerate northeast into the cooler, open Atlantic Ocean. No land impacts beyond Bermuda are expected due to Paulette.
RENE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO REMNANT LOW… Rene is barely hanging on this morning as a weak tropical depression. Maximum winds are at 30 mph. Rene is in the middle of the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean and is expected to completely dissipate later today or tonight.
T.D. 20 LIKELY TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM TEDDY… Tropical Depression 20 is located about 1,800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean. TD20 will likely become a tropical storm later today or tomorrow, taking the name Teddy. TD20/Teddy-to-be will move westward before turning north in 3 to 4 days. There is a high chance that this system will become a hurricane as it moves northward and ultimately into the open waters of the north Atlantic Ocean. It is too early to know if TD20/Teddy-to-be will be a threat to Bermuda, but impacts for the Leeward Islands and the Caribbean Sea seem increasingly unlikely.
60% CHANCE OF YET ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM… Another area of disturbed weather is located over the Cabo Verde Islands that continues to produce showers and storms. This area of low pressure will move northwest into the open waters of the eastern Atlantic Ocean. NHC indicates there is a 60% chance of this system becoming a tropical storm in the days ahead. Regardless of if this system develops into a tropical storm, land impacts beyond the Cabo Verde Islands are highly unlikely. Good news!
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted over the next several days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY… Be sure to check in the RedZone Weather app throughout the day for the latest updates concerning Tropical Storm Sally. I will have numerous updates posted later today into tonight. My next live video update will happen this evening some time after 7PM.
Have a nice Sunday!