HEAVY RAIN & FLOODING LIKELY; TORNADO RISK INCREASES MONDAY… 10 to 15 inches of rainfall continues to be in the forecast for the immediate coastal areas of south Alabama and northwest Florida as Tropical Storm Sally approaches. Rain amounts of 4 to 10 inches of rain will be possible farther inland, generally with higher amounts farther south. This will set up a very serious flash flooding risk through Wednesday as the core of Sally likely moves just to our west, keeping our region in the unstable eastern side of the storm. Tornadoes could be an issue as early as Monday morning, particularly near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. The tornado risk will likely spread inland throughout the day.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPANDED… The Flash Flood Watch that was previously in effect for only coastal counties has been expanded to include several other counties in our local area. If you’re in any of the following counties, you are now under a Flash Flood Watch until Thursday due to the growing potential for a significant, long duration heavy rain event that could lead to flash flooding: Escambia (AL), Clarke, Washington, Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa. The Florida Panhandle region (Walton County and points east) are also involved in a Flash Flood Watch as is much of Mississippi and eastern Louisiana.
10AM CDT SUNDAY ADVISORY – SALLY… Tropical Storm Sally continues to organize in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on this Sunday afternoon. As of the 10AM CDT advisory, the center of Sally is located about 135 miles west of St. Petersburg, Florida. That equates to around 280 miles east-southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum winds have increased to near 60 mph and minimum central pressure is down to 998 millibars. Generally, as the minimum central pressure decreases, the winds in the storm will grow stronger. Sally continues to move west-northwest at about 12 mph. The storm is expected to slow down once it moves basically due south of our local area. This is problematic, as increased rain and storms may quickly set up a potentially dangerous flash flooding situation near our local coastline.
TO CANCEL OR NOT TO CANCEL BEACH TRIP… One of the perennial questions I get (a lot!) ahead of tropical storms and hurricanes being near our area is, “I have a beach trip planned for x days. Should I cancel?” Since we currently do not have any evacuation orders locally AND since we are not expecting the core of Sally to move directly over our local area at this time, I can tell you what *I* would do. If I had a beach trip planned to the Alabama or northwest Florida beaches, this week, I would go with the understanding there will be lots of rain and maybe some gusty winds. If you are headed to the beach with expectations of full sunshine, that is not going to happen this week. What I would do may be different from what you want to do. I’m the type of person that does not mind wind and rain. You might be.
TORNADO RISK INCREASES MONDAY… Spin-up tornadoes will potentially become an issue for coastal areas of south Alabama and northwest Florida as soon as Monday in the late morning hours. This tornado risk will gradually spread inland across the region throughout the day on Monday. The tornado risk is expected to last until Wednesday as Sally slows down and continues to usher in rain and storms from the Gulf into our region. We’ll be on the volatile eastern flank of the storm, meaning an ongoing, long duration tornado risk should be expected. These tornadoes likely will NOT be long-track, violent tornadoes. Tropical-related tornadoes are usually brief and don’t last very long, but they still can be quite damaging. If a tornado affects you or your loved ones, it is a big deal. Please have a way to get urgent tornado warnings from Monday through Wednesday!
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ENTIRE LOCAL COASTLINE… A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for coastal areas of Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. This Tropical Storm Warning is technically in effect from Ocean Springs, Mississippi eastward to Indian Pass, Florida. That means that all of the coastal areas of Walton, Bay, and Gulf counties in the Florida Panhandle are also involved in this Tropical Storm Warning. Wind gusts in excess of tropical storm force (39 mph) may happen as Sally approaches through Tuesday.
HURRICANE WATCH & STORM SURGE WATCH FOR ALABAMA COAST… A Hurricane Watch is also in effect from Ocean Springs, MS eastward to the Alabama-Florida border at Orange Beach, AL. This Hurricane Watch includes Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, and Orange Beach. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for these areas as well.
HURRICANE WARNING & STORM SURGE WARNING TO OUR WEST… A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana eastward to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. This includes Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans. Hurricane force winds will be possible in these areas Monday night into Tuesday and perhaps early Wednesday as the core of what will likely be Hurricane Sally moves by. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for these areas as well.
DETAILED COUNTY-BY-COUNTY ASSESSMENT… If you missed my earlier post discussing each individual city and town in the local counties across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida, be sure to check it out here.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have the next detailed LIVE video update on Tropical Storm Sally later this evening, unless warranted sooner. Until then, be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app throughout the day for the very latest information. Have a good Sunday afternoon!