HEAVY RAIN & LOCAL IMPACTS KICK OFF MONDAY MORNING AT THE COAST… Tropical Storm Sally will likely become a hurricane over the next 12-24 hours before making landfall in southeast Louisiana or southeast Mississippi. Unfortunately, the forward speed of Sally is going to drop tremendously on Monday into Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper-level atmospheric steering basically collapses, allowing Sally to stall for a few days and drop 20+ inches of rain in some spots near the southeast Louisiana coast. Rain amounts locally probably won’t be that high in vast majority of cases, but extreme rain amounts ARE expected near the Alabama and northwest Florida coast. The attached graphic highlights the current forecast total rainfall amount in each given place across our region. In addition to the heavy rain threat that will begin at the immediate coast on Monday morning, a risk of isolated tornadoes will also begin. Full forecast details are below.
7PM SUNDAY ADVISORY – TROPICAL STORM SALLY… The National Hurricane Center indicates in their 7PM advisory for Tropical Storm Sally that the storm continues to move west-northwest at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds are at 60 mph. Minimum central pressure is at 996 millibars. Sally is expected to continue to move across the central Gulf at around 8-10 mph tonight and into early Monday before drastically slowing down due to the loss of the steering currents in the upper atmosphere. Sally will then very slowly begin to jog north, likely making landfall some time Tuesday or Wednesday in eastern Louisiana and then Mississippi. Further track changes are not completely out of the question, thus it is imperative that we all continue to keep close tabs on this developing storm.
EXTREME RISK OF FLASH FLOODING & HEAVY RAIN… Coastal areas in Alabama and northwest Florida have an uncommon EXTREME risk of prolonged heavy rain that could lead to widespread flash flooding issues in the days ahead. The greatest chance of major flash flooding issues will happen along and south of Interstate 10 in parts of Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. Flooding is one of the most serious weather-related dangers in America today. Most flood-related deaths are totally preventable. If you encounter a water-covered roadway in the days ahead, PLEASE “turn around, don’t drown.” I suspect, based on the ongoing data that is coming in, that flash flooding will become quite serious Tuesday into Wednesday across our area, particularly near the coast.
The following information remains totally on target from my previous text discussions earlier today.
FLASH FLOODING RISK INLAND TOO… While the risk is lower, it certainly is NOT zero for inland areas in terms of the overall flash flooding risk setting up due to Tropical Storm Sally. There could be situations where rain bands set up over the same areas and train for hours. This could quickly become problematic for inland areas north of I-10.
RIVER & CREEK FLOODING POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK… It is a good thing that local creeks and rivers are generally running at average to below average stream flows as of today, because Sally will quickly cause many of our local streams to become full, if not go into flood stage. River and creek flooding could become an issue as early as Tuesday and extend long after the circulation of Sally departs from the Southeastern U.S. Coastal areas have a higher probability of river and creek flooding than inland areas, but the risk certainly is not zero in inland areas for river and creek flooding either. Be ready for possible river and creek flooding later this week!
HIGH WIND POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST… Coastal areas of Alabama have the highest chance of experiencing hurricane force wind gusts (in our local area). Tropical storm force winds may become possible along the northwest Florida coast. Based on the current forecast, high wind issues are not currently expected across inland areas of south Alabama. The exact future track of Sally will determine a lot about what areas have the highest sustained winds, since the core hurricane winds will be confined within 10-20 miles of the center of the storm most likely.
STORM SURGE POSSIBLE AT MOBILE BAY AND THE LOCAL BEACHES… Due to the trajectory of Sally coming in from the southeast coupled with the angle of the coastline, storm surge may be enhanced across eastern Louisiana and coastal areas of Mississippi and Alabama. The official peak storm surge forecast graphic from NHC highlights a 6 to 9 feet storm surge being possible across much of eastern Louisiana and in areas of the Mississippi Coast east of Ocean Springs. 4 to 6 feet of storm surge is expected from Ocean Springs eastward to Dauphin Island. 2 to 4 feet of storm surge is expected along Mobile Bay (particularly the west side of the bay) and near the Alabama beaches. Minor 1-3 feet of surge is likely in northwest Florida.
RISK OF TORNADOES MAXIMIZED AT THE COAST… Tornadoes will become possible in the outer bands of Tropical Storm Sally on Monday, perhaps as early as the morning hours in coastal areas of northwest Florida and Alabama. This increasing tornado risk will spread inland gradually throughout the day on Monday. While the highest risk of having a tropical, spin-up tornado locally will happen in Baldwin, Mobile, Washington, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties, we can’t rule out any locales from this risk of isolated tornadoes in south Alabama or northwest Florida. The greatest tornado risk will probably happen Tuesday into Wednesday as Sally comes ashore near our area or just to the west. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings through Wednesday!
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted over the next several days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
NEXT UPDATE… More updates will be posted over the next several hours in the RedZone Weather app. My next live video update will happen some time after 7PM this evening. Be sure to join us for that. Have a good Sunday evening!