HURRICANE SALLY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN IN NORTHERN GULF… Sally continues to become more organized in the northern Gulf of Mexico on this Monday afternoon. A Hurricane Warning continues for Mobile and Baldwin counties in coastal Alabama where 15 to 20 (!) inches of rain, hurricane force wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes will become possible in the days ahead. A Tropical Storm Warning continues for Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties where 10 to 15 inches of rainfall, tropical storm force wind gusts, minor storm surge, and tornadoes will be possible. We note that Clarke, Washington, and Choctaw counties in west Alabama are also now involved in a Tropical Storm Warning.
WHAT TO EXPECT – AFTERNOON & EVENING… Increasing rain chances, especially near the northwest Florida and Alabama coastline. A few tornadoes may become possible this evening near the immediate coast. The tornado risk will spread inland overnight. Heavier, more consistent rain is expected to begin near the coast and spread inland overnight, quickly creating the dangerous flash flooding setup.
The discussion from this morning remains on target. It has been lightly edited to update to the latest information on Sally and add info about newly designated Tropical Storm Teddy and Tropical Storm Vicky. Those two storms likely will never be an issue for our local area.
HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY… Showers and storms will start near the coast and progressively move inland later tonight. Heavy rain is likely at times today with a more steady, perhaps nonstop rain setting up later tonight. The flash flood risk will begin once heavy rain and storms begin training over the same areas, which seems increasingly likely to happen on Tuesday into Wednesday.
TORNADO RISK AT THE COAST FIRST; SPREADING INLAND LATER TONIGHT… Tornadoes will be possible in the outer rain bands of Sally that spread across south Alabama and northwest Florida today. This means that the tornado risk will likely start first around the northwest Florida coast and gradually spread westward and inland throughout the day. Tropical tornadoes generally do not last long, but they can cause localized areas of damage and still are very serious in some cases. If we have tornado warnings today or at any point over the next few days, be sure to join us in our live video coverage that will remain on the air as long as the warning is in effect.
HIGH WIND POSSIBLE NEAR AL COAST & WEST AL TUES. INTO WEDS… Due to the eastward track adjustment for Sally, we now have a slightly higher risk zone for hurricane force wind gusts in place for much of Mobile County and the coastal areas of Baldwin County as well. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for Mobile and Baldwin counties. These are the places that have the highest risk of potential wind-related damage in our local area. The risk of tropical storm force winds has expanded to now include parts of Clarke and Washington counties in west Alabama since the core of Sally will be near these areas on Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Clarke, Washington, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties.
RIVER & CREEK FLOODING POSSIBLE… Local creeks and rivers are generally running at average to below average stream flows as of today. Sally will quickly cause many of our local streams to become full, if not go into flood stage. River and creek flooding could become an issue as early as Tuesday and extend long after the circulation of Sally departs from the Southeastern U.S. Coastal areas have a higher probability of river and creek flooding than inland areas, but the risk certainly is not zero in inland areas for river and creek flooding either. Be ready for possible river and creek flooding later this week!
STORM SURGE LIKELY AT THE ALABAMA BEACHES & MOBILE BAY… A highly significant and potentially dangerous 7 to 11 ft. storm surge is now forecast for eastern Louisiana and parts of the Mississippi coast WEST of Ocean Springs. 4 to 7 ft. storm surge is expected from Ocean Springs to the Mississippi-Alabama border. A 3 to 5 ft. storm surge is projected for the Alabama coastline, the Mississippi Sound, and Mobile Bay. 1-3 ft. of storm surge is expected at the northwest Florida beaches.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR MOBILE BAY & AL BEACHES… Because of the risk of water levels rising and the 3 to 5 ft. storm surge, a Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for all of the Alabama coastline, including Mobile Bay. Coastal flooding will be most likely to happen in southern Mobile County near Dauphin Island and Bayou La Batre. Storm surge issues are also expected near the Causeway in the northern part of Mobile Bay.
LANDFALL IN LA OR MS BUT IMPACTS LIKELY IN AL & NW FL… The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center currently shows a landfall of Sally being possible from Grand Isle, Louisiana eastward to Orange Beach, Alabama. That is the CENTER point. Impacts will extend outward WELL away from the center point. The current thinking is that the center of circulation of Sally is likely to approach Louisiana or Mississippi as a hurricane later today with landfall more likely tomorrow (Tuesday). This scenario would place our entire local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida in the unstable eastern side of the storm, where the near constant flow of moisture off the northern Gulf of Mexico could create a dangerous flash flooding setup near the coast and the potential for a long form tornado threat. Even minor changes to the track forecast could put our region at a greater risk of stronger sustained winds. It is critical that we all up-to-date on the progress of Sally over the next 24-48 hours.
SALLY IMPACTS EXPECTED TO END LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… We have a long few days ahead with lots of rain and the potential for significant hazards, including high wind, storm surge, tornadoes, coastal flooding, flash flooding, and river & creek flooding. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings over the next 48-72 hours. I realize this is a long duration, inconvenient weather situation for MANY folks across our area, but when we get to late Wednesday and early Thursday, we will be in much better shape. Thursday will likely feature only scattered showers and perhaps a few P.M. storms, but Sally will definitely be on the way out at that point.
COOLER AIR POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND… It is great to be able to conclude this long forecast discussion by reporting we have a real shot of seeing some cooler, drier, stable air moving in for the upcoming weekend. High temperatures may drop to around 82-83 degrees. There is a chance we may have to knock a few degrees of that projection, too! That means we could have HIGH temps around 80 by Saturday and Sunday with overnight lows in the low- to mid-60s. A lot can change between now and then. Stay tuned!
HURRICANE PAULETTE RIGHT OVER BERMUDA THIS MORNING… Hurricane Paulette moved right over Bermuda earlier today. The storm is now racing into the north Atlantic. No more land impacts are expected because of Paulette.
TROPICAL STORMS TEDDY & VICKY IN ATLANTIC… TD20 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Teddy this morning. The storm is in the tropical waters of the central Atlantic Ocean. A tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands became Tropical Storm Vicky several hours ago, too. These storms are expected to remain out at sea. Bermuda impacts possible because of Teddy in 5-7 days.
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOW… There is a low-end (20%) chance that a weak tropical area of low pressure drifting south in the western part of the Gulf of Mexico becomes a tropical storm over the next few days. This is a totally separate system from Sally. From NHC: “A weak area of low pressure over the west-central Gulf of Mexico continues to produce limited shower activity. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves southwestward and then southward at 5 to 10 mph over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.”
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… We will go into long form live severe weather coverage if tornado warnings are needed today, tonight, or over the next few days. Until then, I will have ongoing updates in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed update will be posted later this evening or sooner, if needed. Have a good Monday evening!