SALLY NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
RIVER & CREEK FLOOD WARNINGS ISSUED… Sally continues to strengthen on this Monday evening. The hurricane has reached category 2 intensity well ahead of schedule and now has maximum winds of 100 mph. While the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for high-end category 2 (110 mph) intensity at landfall, there is now a considerable chance Sally could be a major, category 3 hurricane at landfall in the next 24-48 hours. REGARDLESS of what category the system ends up being, IMPACTS remain very significant with 5-15″ of total rainfall being possible across many areas locally near the coast and over west Alabama. See the latest details on the flood warnings just issued for local rivers and creeks below.
INLAND FLOOD WARNINGS ISSUED AHEAD OF SALLY… The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Warning for several local creeks and rivers as projected water levels are expected to rapidly rise due to the high rain amounts associated with Hurricane Sally. A Flood Warning is now in effect for Murder Creek at Brewton, Big Escambia Creek at Flomaton, Escambia River near Century, Blackwater River near Baker, Big Coldwater Creek near Milton, Shoal River near Crestview, Tombigbee River near Leroy, Perdido River near Barrineau Park, Styx River near Elsanor, and Fish River near Silverhill.
MURDER CREEK NEAR BREWTON… Flood stage is 22.0 feet. The creek is expected to rise above flood stage Wednesday afternoon to a crest of 26.0 feet Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage late Friday morning. Persimmon Street and Ann Street begin to flood at 23 feet. At 25.0 feet, water will reach to Downing Street in Brewton. Portions of Snowden Street in East Brewton will become flooded. Flooding of Highway 29 may worsen and become impassable. This forecast crest compares to a previous crest of 25.9 feet on 09/30/1998.
BIG ESCAMBIA CREEK NEAR FLOMATON… Flood stage is 19.0 feet. The river will rise above flood stage Thursday morning and continue to rise to 19.6 feet early Thursday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late Thursday evening. At 19.0 feet, water reaches several homes on north side of Highway 31.
ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY… Flood stage is 17.0 feet. The river is expected to rise above flood stage early Wednesday afternoon and continue rising to a crest of 22.1 feet Friday morning. At 23.3 feet, widespread flooding of pasture and farmland. Water begins to reach Mystic Springs Road, Worley Road, Mamer Holley Lane and River Bend Road. Approximately 5 houses become isolated in the McDavid and Molino communities. Public boat ramps at Mystic Springs and Fairground Road are submerged.
BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER… Flood stage is 11.0 feet. The river will rise above flood stage early Wednesday morning and continue to rise to 16.7 feet Wednesday evening. It will then fall below flood stage Thursday afternoon. At 16.0 feet, some residential flooding occurs downstream from Baker.
BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON… Flood stage is 10 feet. Moderate flooding is forecast. The river is expected to rise above flood stage late Wednesday morning to a crest of 15.9 feet Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage late Friday morning.
SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW… Flood stage is 8.0 feet. The river is expected to rise above flood stage Wednesday afternoon and continue rising to a crest of 11.2 feet early Friday morning. At 11.0 feet, Flooding becomes a threat to the Trevor Court and Rattlesnake Bluff areas.
TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY… Flood stage is 24.0 feet. The river is expected to rise above flood stage early Thursday afternoon to a crest of 25.2 feet Thursday evening. It will then fall below flood stage early Friday morning. At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to higher ground.
PERDIDO RIVER NEAR BARRINEAU PARK… Flood stage is 13.0 feet. The river is expected to rise above flood stage late Wednesday evening to a crest of 14.6 feet Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage late Thursday evening. At 13.0 feet, the river begins to leave its banks at the parking lot of Adventures Perdido River. Begins to threaten several permanently parked travel trailers at this level as well.
STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR… Flood stage is 12.0 feet. The river is expected to rise above flood stage Wednesday morning to a crest of 15.1 feet Wednesday evening. It will then fall below flood stage early Thursday afternoon. At 16.0 feet, Water begins to flood Donovan Circle in the Seminole Landing community.
FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL… Flood stage is 11.0 feet. The river is expected to rise above flood stage Wednesday morning to a crest of 13.0 feet early Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage early Thursday afternoon. At 13.0 feet, homes on River Road begin to flood.
WHAT TO EXPECT – THIS EVENING… Increasing rain chances, especially near the northwest Florida and Alabama coastline. A few tornadoes may become possible this evening near the immediate coast. The tornado risk will spread inland overnight. Heavier, more consistent rain is expected to begin near the coast and spread inland overnight, quickly creating the dangerous flash flooding setup.
HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY… Showers and storms will start near the coast and progressively move inland later tonight. Heavy rain is likely at times today with a more steady, perhaps nonstop rain setting up later tonight. The flash flood risk will begin once heavy rain and storms begin training over the same areas, which seems increasingly likely to happen on Tuesday into Wednesday.
TORNADO RISK AT THE COAST FIRST; SPREADING INLAND LATER TONIGHT… Tornadoes will be possible in the outer rain bands of Sally that spread across south Alabama and northwest Florida today. This means that the tornado risk will likely start first around the northwest Florida coast and gradually spread westward and inland throughout the day. Tropical tornadoes generally do not last long, but they can cause localized areas of damage and still are very serious in some cases. If we have tornado warnings today or at any point over the next few days, be sure to join us in our live video coverage that will remain on the air as long as the warning is in effect.
HIGH WIND POSSIBLE NEAR AL COAST & WEST AL TUES. INTO WEDS… Due to the eastward track adjustment for Sally, we now have a slightly higher risk zone for hurricane force wind gusts in place for much of Mobile County and the coastal areas of Baldwin County as well. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for Mobile and Baldwin counties. As of 4PM Monday, a Hurricane Warning has also been issued for Escambia (FL) and Santa Rosa counties. These are the places that have the highest risk of potential wind-related damage in our local area. The risk of tropical storm force winds has expanded to now include parts of Clarke and Washington counties in west Alabama since the core of Sally will be near these areas on Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Clarke, Washington, and Okaloosa counties.
STORM SURGE LIKELY AT THE ALABAMA BEACHES & MOBILE BAY… A highly significant and potentially dangerous 7 to 11 ft. storm surge is now forecast for eastern Louisiana and parts of the Mississippi coast WEST of Ocean Springs. 4 to 7 ft. storm surge is expected from Ocean Springs to the Mississippi-Alabama border. A 3 to 5 ft. storm surge is projected for the Alabama coastline, the Mississippi Sound, and Mobile Bay. 1-3 ft. of storm surge is expected at the northwest Florida beaches.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR MOBILE BAY & AL BEACHES… Because of the risk of water levels rising and the 3 to 5 ft. storm surge, a Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for all of the Alabama coastline, including Mobile Bay. Coastal flooding will be most likely to happen in southern Mobile County near Dauphin Island and Bayou La Batre. Storm surge issues are also expected near the Causeway in the northern part of Mobile Bay.
LANDFALL IN LA OR MS BUT IMPACTS LIKELY IN AL & NW FL… The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center currently shows a landfall of Sally being possible from Grand Isle, Louisiana eastward to Orange Beach, Alabama. That is the CENTER point. Impacts will extend outward WELL away from the center point. The current thinking is that the center of circulation of Sally is likely to approach Louisiana or Mississippi as a hurricane later today with landfall more likely tomorrow (Tuesday). This scenario would place our entire local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida in the unstable eastern side of the storm, where the near constant flow of moisture off the northern Gulf of Mexico could create a dangerous flash flooding setup near the coast and the potential for a long form tornado threat. Even minor changes to the track forecast could put our region at a greater risk of stronger sustained winds. It is critical that we all up-to-date on the progress of Sally over the next 24-48 hours.
SALLY IMPACTS EXPECTED TO END LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… We have a long few days ahead with lots of rain and the potential for significant hazards, including high wind, storm surge, tornadoes, coastal flooding, flash flooding, and river & creek flooding. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings over the next 48-72 hours. I realize this is a long duration, inconvenient weather situation for MANY folks across our area, but when we get to late Wednesday and early Thursday, we will be in much better shape. Thursday will likely feature only scattered showers and perhaps a few P.M. storms, but Sally will definitely be on the way out at that point.
COOLER AIR POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND… It is great to be able to conclude this long forecast discussion by reporting we have a real shot of seeing some cooler, drier, stable air moving in for the upcoming weekend. High temperatures may drop to around 82-83 degrees. There is a chance we may have to knock a few degrees of that projection, too! That means we could have HIGH temps around 80 by Saturday and Sunday with overnight lows in the low- to mid-60s. A lot can change between now and then. Stay tuned!
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… We will go into long form live severe weather coverage if tornado warnings are needed tonight or over the next few days. Until then, I will have ongoing updates in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed update will be posted later this evening or sooner, if needed. Have a good Monday evening!