TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22 HAS FORMED IN THE GULF… I know this is not what anyone along the Gulf Coast wants to hear after the many (Cristobal, Hanna, Laura, Marco, Sally) tropical storm and hurricane landfalls this year. Unfortunately, we have yet another developing tropical storm in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on this Thursday. The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 22, located in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is currently located a few hundred miles east of the Mexico coastline, southeast of Texas. Forecast models have had very little agreement regarding the ultimate track of this system, but I am giving you an early notice that some model guidance DOES bring the system northeast toward Louisiana, Mississippi, and potentially Alabama and northwest Florida. Other models suggest this developing storm could be more of an issue for Texas or Mexico instead. More details below.
TWO DIFFERENT MODEL SCENARIOS… As of 3PM Thursday (September 17, 2020), there are essentially two different “trains of thought” being presented by various major weather models. The first camp of models generally meanders the storm around as it develops over the southwestern Gulf before slowly moving the storm into Texas or Mexico as a tropical storm or hurricane. The second camp of models shows the storm meandering and moving very slowly in the southwestern Gulf for several days before rapidly moving the storm northeast, into areas like Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, of Florida.
NORMAL FOR MODEL VARIANCE AT THIS STAGE… It is fairly common to have substantial model disagreement in the leadup to a tropical storm forming. This is because models generally do not have a good grasp on *exactly* where a tropical storm is forming. The low-level center has not formed yet, thus the model has to assume and infer where a center MAY form. That can quickly become problematic, however, as if the “starting point” is wrong, the “ending point” will likely be wrong.
NHC DISCUSSION… “Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little today in association with an area low pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical storm could form within the next day or so. The low is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through tonight before moving slowly northward to northeastward on Friday and Saturday.”
GREEK ALPHABET NAMES SOON… We have one more of the regular names on the 2020 Atlantic Tropical Naming List that we have yet to use: Wilfred. Once Wilfred is used as a tropical storm name, the next name will come from the Greek Alphabet: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta, Iota, and so fourth. You may be wondering what would happen if a Greek Alphabet name had to be retired because a hurricane is so intense, thus warranting the name being retired. In short, the name would not be retired. It would be noted as a retired name with the year attached, but the Greek Alphabet name would continue to be used (if necessary) in the future. (Alpha-2020, Beta-2020, etc.)
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
Have a great Thursday evening!