WARMER TODAY; 70% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT… Sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures are expected across the region on this first day of October. High temperatures will rise into the mid-80s today ahead of a cold front moving through tonight that will push high temps down into the low- to mid-70s on Friday. Our focus has once again shifted back to the tropics where we are now monitoring two separate tropical waves in the Atlantic Basin. The first tropical disturbance is located in the west-central Caribbean Sea near Jamaica right now. This tropical wave has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next few days as it moves into the western Caribbean Sea, just east of the Yucatan Peninsula. The second tropical wave is currently over the Lesser Antilles, entering the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea. This tropical wave will move west and potentially develop into a tropical storm in several days once it reaches the western Caribbean Sea.
TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND IN CARIBBEAN… The next name from the Greek Alphabet we will use for our next tropical storm is “Gamma” and there is a good chance that name may have to be assigned to the developing tropical disturbance in the west-central Caribbean Sea. Model guidance continues to suggest that this disturbance will ramp up to a tropical storm and potentially move very slowly to the north near the Yucatan Peninsula. We note most major weather models show the system emerging into the southern Gulf, but beyond that, confidence plummets. Some models have suggested a system moving toward the Florida Peninsula or Florida Panhandle, while many others have suggested the system will be forced to the west and dissipate. We just do not have a firm grasp just yet on where this potential storm will ultimately go.
SECOND TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN ATLANTIC… The National Hurricane Center says there is a 20% chance of another, separate disturbance forming into a tropical storm once the system reaches the eastern and central Caribbean Sea in several days. From NHC: “Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. This disturbance is forecast to move westward during the next several days where environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development over the central or western Caribbean Sea by early next week.”
HIGHS IN MID-80s TODAY; ANOTHER COLD FRONT TONIGHT… We briefly turn warmer on this Thursday with high temperatures expected to peak in the mid-80s across the region by 3PM. Full sunshine is expected throughout the day. A cold front is expected to move through our area tonight, ushering in a reinforcing shot of cooler, drier air. No rain or storms will accompany this particular cold front. Clear skies are expected in the overnight hours.
MILD, DRY WEEKEND WITH COOL NIGHTS… Other than a few passing clouds becoming possible on Sunday, this weekend looks dry, cool, and nice! High temperatures will be in the mid-70s on both Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows will be around the 50 degree mark on both Saturday morning and Sunday morning. Plenty of sunshine is expected each day with no rain issues.
NO LOCAL ISSUES FROM TROPICS OVER NEXT 5 DAYS… The developing tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea will pose no imminent threat to the southeastern U.S. through the weekend. The system is expected to slow down quite a bit as it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. This means that we all can enjoy the weekend peacefully without having to worry about any imminent tropical threat. IF, and that is a massive IF at this point, our area were to have any type of issue from this developing tropical disturbance, it would happen in the middle or latter half of the upcoming week. Basically, I encourage everyone to keep tabs on our posts this weekend and into early next week, but certainly don’t worry or stress about this as of now.
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See all the details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!