SUNNY, NICE WEEKEND; TRACKING T.S. GAMMA & TROPICAL WAVE IN CARIBBEAN… Two tropical systems in the Caribbean Sea continue to increase in organization on this Saturday: Tropical Storm Gamma and a separate tropical wave that now has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical storm early next week. Locally, sunshine remains in place for the entire region on this Saturday. High temperatures are expected to peak in the upper-70s today. More sunshine is ahead over the next several days with temperatures expected to gradually increase.
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA APPROACHING YUCATAN COAST… Tropical Storm Gamma continues to move northwest this morning at 7-9 mph. The center of the storm will make landfall along the Caribbean coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico later today. Gamma will be a significant flash flooding threat to parts of eastern Mexico over the next several days. A Tropical Storm Warning continues for much of the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on this Saturday, including areas near Cancun and Cozumel.
GAMMA TO TURN TO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK… The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for the center of Tropical Storm Gamma to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico by tomorrow evening (Sunday). The storm is expected to slow its forward speed and gradually turn to the west. This turn to the west will happen in response to Gamma running into a near stationary cold front and being forced to the west or perhaps even southwest into the Bay of Campeche due to the strong northeasterly winds. This means by Tuesday and Wednesday of the upcoming week, Gamma will likely be a tropical storm not moving very much in the Bay of Campeche, west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Beyond 5 days out, model indications for the ultimate path of Gamma appear much more uncertain. We note that MOST models have showed a strengthening Gamma moving into the far western Gulf and perhaps making landfall in northeast Mexico. That is simply one idea on the table right now. We’ll keep watching Gamma in the days ahead, but for now, certainly no imminent threat to south Alabama or northwest Florida.
40% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT FOR NEXT TROPICAL WAVE… The National Hurricane Center continues to increase the probability of tropical storm formation for the tropical wave currently situated in the east-central Caribbean Sea. This tropical wave is expected to move near Jamaica and into the part of the Caribbean just south of Cuba.
U.S. GULF COAST ISSUES POSSIBLE TOWARD END OF UPCOMING WEEK… Let me be abundantly clear in saying that there is very little confidence concerning exactly where this secondary tropical wave will end up. Chances ARE increasing that the tropical wave will become a tropical storm, but unfortunately it remains too early to know exactly where the system will ultimately end up or just how strong (or weak) it will become. IF (and that is a big IF) Gulf Coast impacts happen because of this tropical storm, those impacts would likely happen toward the end of next week, aka around one week from right now. The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is far from over. We’ve passed the peak of the season, but we still have another solid month ahead of us followed by November when activity typically slacks off quite a bit.
THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL ATLANTIC… Another tropical disturbance is located about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the African continent. NHC says there is a 10% chance of this tropical wave becoming a tropical storm in the days ahead. Regardless of if formal tropical development happens, this disturbance is expected to move northwest and ultimately out to sea in the north-central Atlantic Ocean.
SUNNY & MILD NEXT FEW DAYS FOR LOCAL AREA… Despite the tropics becoming more active, we will have a calm, sunny pattern ahead for the local area over the next few days. Sunny skies are expected through at least Tuesday. High temperatures will rise into the low-80s early next week with overnight lows expected to be in the mid- to upper-50s.
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No special edition Saturday video today as there is no imminent tropical or severe weather threat to our area. I will have updates posted as needed today in the RedZone Weather app. Have a wonderful Saturday!