HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL GULF… There is now a high chance that a tropical storm will form (likely to be named Tropical Storm Delta) and move into the southern Gulf of Mexico late Monday or Tuesday. Potential local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida from this tropical storm (or perhaps hurricane, at that stage) may become possible later this week into the upcoming weekend. While it is FAR from certain that our local area will experience local impacts, the model trends over the last 12-24 hours have been concerning. Mostly sunny skies are expected on this Sunday into Monday. Clouds will start increasing on Tuesday ahead of higher rain chances later the week, regardless of where the center of what will likely be Tropical Storm Delta moves. This week will be one of those weeks where it is important to check back for the latest information as forecast changes ARE expected. Your Sunday afternoon forecast notes are below.
LOCAL IMPACTS IN SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA MAY BE POSSIBLE… While it remains too early for any specifics, the general model consensus over the last 12-24 hours continues to suggest that potential local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida may be possible Thursday, Friday, into Saturday from what will likely be a tropical storm or hurricane. There still is a significant chance that model trends may begin to change and shift the landfall location of this storm farther east or more likely, farther west. Anytime there is a potential hurricane only 4-5 days out from our area, however, certainly warrants our attention and our concern. While there is no need for panic or a need to rush out to local stores, I would suggest now is the time to review your hurricane safety plan and know where you would go and what you would do if this storm continues to be a potential threat for our area. Complicating matters further is the fact that so many folks across our area are still recovering from the devastation caused by Hurricane Sally only a few weeks ago.
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IN SOUTHERN GULF NOW… Aside from this developing tropical storm, we also are tracking Tropical Storm Gamma in the southern Gulf of Mexico on this Sunday evening. Gamma moved into the southern Gulf from the Yucatan Peninsula late last night. Gamma is expected to turn to the west in the hours ahead and ultimately move west and southwest into the Bay of Campeche. At this point, clearly the bigger threat for our local area is the developing tropical disturbance (INVEST 92L) in the western Caribbean Sea. We will continue to monitor Gamma, but no direct local impacts are expected because of Gamma in the days ahead.
GAMMA INTERACTION WITH OTHER TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE… Thinking back to several weeks ago, there was a huge interest in a potential Fujiwhara interaction between Hurricane Laura and Hurricane Marco. That never really happened as Marco faded away and Laura ended up being a powerful, category 4 hurricane that slammed into southwest Louisiana. Some model guidance does suggest that Gamma and this developing storm (likely Delta-to-be) could potentially interact with one another next week. This is more of a curiosity than anything else at this point, but the ramifications are that Gamma may act to swing Delta-to-be a bit farther west. These storms likely would not merge since they would be similar in strength during their Fujiwhara interaction, and no, these storms would not come together to form a “superstorm.” I had that question more than you would like to believe during the Laura/Marco scenario a few weeks ago. The “superstorm merger” idea is not realistic.
PLEASANT SUNDAY IN PROGRESS… Skies will remain mostly sunny on this Sunday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. High temperatures will peak near 80 degrees in most spots. There could be a few passing clouds, especially across northwest Florida and near the Alabama beaches. These clouds are actually streaming northeast along an old frontal boundary that extends southwest to Tropical Storm Gamma. Again, Gamma will not be a concern for the local area anytime soon (if ever). The bigger concern is definitely the developing tropical disturbance approaching Jamaica in the Caribbean Sea.
NEXT NAMED STORM: DELTA… We have been naming tropical storms from the Greek Alphabet over the last few weeks since we ran out of the standard English alphabetical list for the 2020 season. Subtropical Storm Alpha was the first Greek-named storm. It moved into Portugal and Spain a few weeks ago. Tropical Storm Beta developed in the Gulf of Mexico and moved into Texas before its remnants moved near and just west of our local area. Gamma is over the southern Gulf of Mexico now. The next name in the Greek Alphabet is Delta. Beyond Delta, the following names would be Epsilon and Zeta.
APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have your next highly detailed video and longer form text discussion posted by 7:15AM on Monday. Until then, plenty more updates are coming in the RedZone Weather app in the hours ahead. Have a great Sunday evening!