TD26/DELTA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE; LOCAL IMPACTS LIKELY FRIDAY… TD26/Delta is forecast to become a hurricane in the next 48 hours as it moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a growing chance that local impacts will happen in south Alabama and northwest Florida due to what will likely be Hurricane Delta later this week, specifically on Friday. While it is impossible to know the exact landfall location, you should know that our local area will most likely be on the volatile right, front quadrant of this storm (the east side) where impacts could be potentially significant. This situation is still 4-5 days out, but NOW is the time to start preparing for hurricane conditions, especially if you live closer to the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. In addition to TD26/Delta, we are also keeping tabs on Tropical Storm Gamma, currently situated in the southern Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. The forecast for Gamma now explicitly calls for the circulation to be moving north (behind TD26/Delta) on Friday, BUT Gamma will probably be a remnant low pressure area by then. Before we get to our potential tropical trouble later this week, mostly sunny skies are expected on this Monday. High temps will be near 80 in most spots. Your Monday morning forecast details are below.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – TD26/DELTA… The potential impacts from PTC26/Delta would likely happen in south Alabama and northwest Florida would likely happen Friday into Saturday IF the storm indeed approaches our area or passes just to our west (thus putting our area on the volatile eastern side). Coastal impacts may begin as early as Thursday evening. Specific local impacts will largely depend on the exact future track of this storm, but there is little doubt that heavy rain will be a concern. Flash flooding and potentially river and creek flooding could become a concern. Isolated tornadoes will be possible. The wind impacts will be largely dependent on exactly where the center of the storm goes, but keep in mind that our local area IS in the “cone of uncertainty” even 5 days out, thus it is possible that we could have a direct hit from the center of what could be Hurricane Delta at that point. That is NOT a certainty at this point by any stretch, but it is a possibility and one that we all should be preparing for in the days ahead. Please check back with me later today, Tuesday, into Wednesday for new information as forecast changes are expected.
LANDFALL IS LIKELY ALONG NORTHERN GULF COAST… While we won’t know the specific landfall point for a few days, residents from Lake Charles, Louisiana eastward to Port St. Joe, Florida should closely monitor the progress of this system as a landfall along the northern Gulf Coast is very likely at this point. This means that all of the Louisiana coast, the Mississippi coast, the Alabama coast, and the northwest Florida coast should closely keep tabs on TD26/Delta. A Hurricane Watch will likely be needed either later today or on Tuesday at the latest for parts of the northern Gulf Coast.
NOW IS THE TIME TO START REVIEWING YOUR HURRICANE PLAN… Today is Monday, meaning we have approximately 4 days between us and this potential hurricane impact on our local area or areas just to our west. Today is the perfect time to start to review your hurricane plan. I suspect that many folks have depleted supplies after Hurricane Sally, that impacted our area only 19 days ago. This means that you should plan to have necessary supplies, medicines, and plenty of food and drinks ready JUST IN CASE we have hurricane conditions later this week. If you live in an evacuation or flood zone, be ready to heed the orders IF evacuation orders are needed for your specific area.
A PERSONAL NOTE ABOUT HURRICANE SALLY… Just keeping it real, I totally understand and realize that this is the LAST thing that many of you want to hear after the devastation caused by Hurricane Sally only 18 days ago. That is less than 3 weeks ago, and here we are looking at a situation where another hurricane may make a run at the northern Gulf Coast. I am tired of it, you are tired of it, we’re all tired of it. We’re tired of COVID, we’re tired of endless politics, and we’re tired of hurricane season. I get it, I promise. However, it is absolutely critical that we monitor these two tropical systems in the days ahead as unfortunately, there could be more significant impacts upcoming. The Atlantic Hurricane Season WILL end soon, but we’ve got to get through this week and this upcoming weekend before we see quieter conditions (hopefully).
ALSO TRACKING TROPICAL STORM GAMMA… Tropical Storm Gamma continues to produce intermittent bursts of convection in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The center of circulation associated with Gamma is located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gamma is forecast to gradually move westward today into tomorrow before turning southwest into the northern fringes of the Bay of Campeche.
GAMMA FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY… The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for complete dissipation of Tropical Storm Gamma by Friday. This means that the system is now explicitly forecast to become a remnant low. Some remnant moisture from Gamma may reach our local area by Sunday, but at this time, significant impacts from Gamma are not expected. TD26/Delta is clearly the bigger issue.
MOSTLY SUNNY & WARMISH TODAY… Mostly sunny skies are expected across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Monday. High temperatures will be in the 78-81 degree range in most spots across the region. Cloud coverage will increase near the coast today as high clouds stream in from Tropical Storm Gamma in the southern Gulf.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR COAST IN DAYS AHEAD… Rain chances have increased for the south and eastern parts of our region (near the coast, mainly) as clouds from Tropical Storm Gamma stream in from the south. Most likely we won’t have rain today, but I can’t rule out a few showers near the coast on Tuesday into Wednesday. Starting Thursday, we will begin to experience the outer rain bands of what will likely be Hurricane Delta by that point, depending on the exact future track of the storm.
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send many Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATES… I will have more updates posted in the RedZone Weather app as needed today. I also will have another detailed post later this evening. Have a good Monday!