DELTA NOW A STRONG TROPICAL STORM; EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT… Tropical Storm Delta continues to gain strength as of early Monday evening. Maximum sustained winds as of the 4PM advisory are at 70 mph as measured by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft crew currently investigating the storm. The minimum central pressure is at 983 millibars, representing a pretty significant drop over the last few hours. This means that further strengthening is likely over the next few hours. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for the storm to become a hurricane in the next 12 hours. The “cone of uncertainty” has shifted ever so slightly to the WEST early this evening, in line with recent global model trends from the last few hours. While this could be the sign of beginning of a positive trend for our local area, it is FAR too early to suggest that just yet. We have a long way to go between now and Friday when this storm will make landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast. A few Monday early evening forecast notes are below.
DELTA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE… The National Hurricane Center now explicitly calls for Delta to become a major hurricane in the next 36 hours. Delta is expected to ramp up to category 3 intensity on Wednesday into Thursday before perhaps weakening some as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast due to increasing shear and slightly cooler water temperatures. It should be vehemently emphasized that “weakening” in this context may not mean too much as going from a category 3 “down to” a category 2 hurricane at landfall is more of a technicality. Unfortunately, Hurricane Sally demonstrated that just a few weeks ago, being a high-end category 2 (yet QUITE devastating) hurricane for our area.
5PM MONDAY UPDATE ON THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY… The cone of uncertainty extends from Beaumont, Texas on the west to Destin, Florida on the east. This means that the CENTER of the storm is expected to move onshore between these two points. Keep in mind that impacts will extend outward well away from the center, particularly on the eastern side (the right, front quadrant) of the storm. Our local area IS expected to be involved in this right, front quadrant, meaning impacts could be more pronounced compared to if our area was on the western side of the storm.
HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST YUCATAN… The forecast shift in the short-term has required the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for parts of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Rio Lagartos in Mexico. Cozumel is now also under a Hurricane Warning. This area of Mexico joins the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio with a Hurricane Warning now being in effect. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Artemisa and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands, including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. The Isle of Youth is also under a Tropical Storm Warning. The Cuban province of La Habana is under a Tropical Storm Watch. A Hurricane Watch will probably be needed for a part of the U.S. Gulf Coast later tonight or on Tuesday.
GAMMA WEAKENS TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION… Some good news to pass along on this Monday evening. Gamma continues to weaken. The system is now a tropical depression and has an exposed circulation center in the southern Gulf. No deep convection has fired up over the exposed center of circulation associated with Gamma, meaning the system is probably well on its way to becoming a remnant area of low pressure. Our focus can exclusively be on Delta in the days ahead and we likely won’t have to worry about a “double threat” due to Gamma. This is excellent news!
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – DELTA… Local impacts from what will likely be Hurricane Delta (currently a tropical storm as of Noon on Monday) are expected to begin as early as Thursday P.M. near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Friday, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours, into Saturday morning are when impacts will likely be the most significant across our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. All hurricane hazards will be possible on Friday into Saturday morning across our region, including the potential for gusty winds (especially near the coast), storm surge, tornadoes, and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and ultimately river and creek flooding. This will inevitably be different compared to Hurricane Sally that was an extremely slow-moving storm. Delta, on the other hand (and thankfully!), will be moving a lot quicker.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT LIVE VIDEO… I will have a detailed LIVE video update later this evening (some time between 7PM and 9PM) bringing you the latest information on Tropical Storm Delta. Until then, join me for more shorter form updates in the RedZone Weather app. See you in the live video this evening!