DELTA WON’T BE ANOTHER SALLY; LOCAL IMPACTS UPDATE… The center of Hurricane Delta is expected to make landfall in west-central Louisiana on Friday. While the dangerous, widespread hurricane conditions due to Delta will likely happen in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, there will likely be a limited amount of impacts in our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Please see the below paragraphs about why Hurricane Delta is quite different from Hurricane Sally. Clearly, the greatest concern locally will happen over southwest Alabama in parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Clarke, and Washington counties. These are the zones where a brief tornado or two will be most likely to happen. In addition, wind GUSTS up to tropical storm force may become possible. More Wednesday evening forecast notes are below.
GREATEST IMPACTS LOCALLY OVER WEST ALABAMA… The greatest risk of a few tornadoes, heavy rain that could lead to isolated flash flooding issues, and wind gusts that could potentially reach tropical storm force (39 mph) will happen across west Alabama. If you’re in Mobile, Baldwin, Clarke, Washington, or Choctaw counties, be ready for a side swipe from Delta as the storm moves northeast on Saturday. Isolated tornadoes will be the main concern.
LOW-END TORNADO RISK & HEAVY RAIN FOR MOST AREAS LOCALLY… If you are west of the Alabama River in southwest Alabama, your overall tornado risk is set to be lower compared to communities farther west. There still could be a tornado or two, but the greater risk is to the west. Heavy rain will be possible at times. Gusty winds will be possible at times on Saturday.
MUCH LOWER RISK FARTHER EAST… It certainly appears that much of northwest Florida and south central Alabama will not have major impacts from Hurricane Delta. Rain at times, yes. Big wind and tornado issues, no. The risks will simply be greater in areas to your west.
WILL THE CONE SHIFT BACK EAST SIGNIFICANTLY? ALMOST CERTAINLY NOT… I realize after the slow, erratic movement of Hurricane Sally a few weeks ago that so many people across our region in south Alabama and northwest Florida are on edge and won’t feel totally comfortable again until this whole hurricane event is over. This is a totally different situation compared to Sally, however. Forecast confidence is quite high at this point that Delta will make landfall in Louisiana (or perhaps even east Texas, based on the cone of uncertainty) and NOT in Alabama or northwest Florida. Hurricane Delta is moving at a MUCH higher rate of speed (17 mph now vs. when Sally was moving at 2 or 3 mph over the northern Gulf). While some slowing down of the system IS expected over the next 24 hours, there is a high probability that the storm won’t ever stall like Sally did.
IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE… In addition and perhaps more importantly to the forward speed of Hurricane Delta (outlined in previous paragraph), there is NO major weather model at this point that suggests a landfall point anywhere close to Alabama or northwest Florida. *ALL* models point to a Louisiana or east Texas landfall. YES, we will have rain and some degree of limited impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida. NO, the landfall point will not be local. This is excellent news!
HURRICANE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY… A Hurricane Watch is in effect from High Island, Texas eastward to Grand Isle, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Grand Isle to Bay St. Louis, MS. There also is a Tropical Storm Watch in effect in Texas from San Luis Pass to High Island. A Hurricane Warning will likely be needed for a part of the Louisiana coast later tonight or early on Thursday.
STORM SURGE WATCH INCLUDES ALABAMA COAST… A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from High Island, Texas eastward to the Alabama-Florida state line at Orange Beach and Perdido Key. This includes Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound, Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne. While peak surge values of 7 to 11 feet are currently forecast for Vermilion Bay and areas near Pecan Island in Louisiana, storm surge is expected to peak around 2 to 4 feet along the Alabama beaches and Mobile Bay. There will likely be a Storm Surge Warning issued later this evening for parts of the Louisiana coast.
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My next LIVE video update will air this evening around 7:30PM. See you then!