RZW EXEC: GROWING CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND… RZW Exec partners, good Friday morning! There has been a considerable forecast shift in the future track for what is currently branded as INVEST 95L, an area of low pressure developing in the western Caribbean Sea south of Cuba. This system now has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the days ahead. As recently as last night, model guidance pointed to a storm that would likely move across Cuba and The Bahamas and race into the open waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean. Overnight, we saw a significant shift in guidance. The National Hurricane Center now suggests a track of this developing system into the Gulf of Mexico seems more likely. We will ramp up our public messaging about this shortly. I will have another RZW Exec update for you tomorrow (Saturday) or sooner, if needed.
TROPICAL STORM MAY FORM THIS WEEKEND IN CARIBBEAN OR SOUTHERN GULF… Talk about a significant forecast change! The National Hurricane Center now suggests there is a 60% chance of a tropical storm forming in the northwest Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico in the days ahead with a chance of this system moving north toward the Gulf Coast. It is too early to know IF or when local impacts will happen in Alabama or northwest Florida, although early indications point to higher rain chances for the local area by the end of the upcoming week (approximately one week from now). Sea surface temperatures are significantly cooler in the Gulf of Mexico compared to the peak of hurricane season a few weeks ago, but this system goes to show: We’re not completely done with hurricane season just yet. I know SO many folks (including yours truly!) are very much ready for hurricane season to be over, but we still have a few weeks left. Hang with us in the days ahead and we’ll monitor trends and forecasts and bring you the latest in our RedZone Weather app. More details are below.
60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION… The 60% chance of tropical storm formation now in place for INVEST 95L represents a significant forecast change over the last 12-18 hours. Last night, the National Hurricane Center highlighted the area of concern in the Caribbean Sea (INVEST 95L) with a low-end (20-30%) chance of development with the storm likely moving northeast into the Atlantic. A northeasterly motion was also featured this morning at 2AM, which is what we highlighted in our morning video. NOW, a motion toward the Gulf of Mexico is expected due to a fairly abrupt shift in model guidance to the west. All of these changes highlight the continued uncertainty with the exact future of this developing tropical system.
LOCAL IMPACTS TO BE DETERMINED… It is too early to know IF or WHEN local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will happen due to this developing tropical system. Models this morning, frankly, are “all over the board” with different tracks and intensities for this system going into next week. Impacts, if they happen locally, seem most likely to happen some time from Wednesday through Friday of the upcoming week. Please understand that is a tentative idea, based on the data we have at this moment, and is highly subject to change in the days ahead.
HURRICANE SEASON FATIGUE IS REAL… This is the LAST possible thing that anyone along the Gulf Coast (or really any coastal resident in the Atlantic Basin!) wants to hear after our hyperactive hurricane season so far. I understand that and to be frank, I am more than ready for hurricane season to end. However, just because we are all fatigued of hurricane season does not mean this risk will just “go away.” Thus, I would plead with you to please check in for updates in the days ahead. Hopefully this system will dissipate or just be a rainmaker. We will keep you posted every step of the way.
STORMS LIKELY TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON… The radar is quiet at the time I am writing this update around 10:30AM. I expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to pop up this afternoon into this evening across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Severe weather is not expected, but there could be cloud-to-ground lightning in the stronger storms and isolated downpours of heavy rain. These areas of rain and storms are not associated with the tropical system, but are instead affiliated with the passing area of low pressure moving across our region tonight. I’ll have radar updates posted as needed in the RedZone Weather app.
APP… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have the next update on this developing system later this evening or sooner, if warranted. I will have plenty more updates coming in the RedZone Weather app in the hours ahead.