TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD LOCAL AREA THIS WEEK… Tropical Depression 28 strengthened overnight to become Tropical Storm Zeta, currently stationary in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane in the southern Gulf on Tuesday as the storm begins to move more rapidly to the northwest, followed by a turn to the north. Landfall is expected along the northern Gulf Coast in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, or northwest Florida on Wednesday, probably with Zeta being either a strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane at that point. The cone of uncertainty extends from Pecan Island, Louisiana eastward to Navarre, Florida. Note that even if the center of Zeta makes landfall in Louisiana or Mississippi, that puts Alabama and northwest Florida on the eastern side of this landfalling storm, meaning impacts would be LIKELY in our local area.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – ZETA… Heavy rain and flash flooding will likely be the main concerns across south Alabama and northwest Florida due to the passage of Tropical Storm Zeta near or over our local area. In addition, there likely will be a threat of a few tornadoes, gusty winds near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, and potentially storm surge issues. It is a bit too early for specifics on each impact, but please understand that confidence is growing that local impacts are expected across our region.
TIMING – LOCAL ZETA IMPACTS… Right now, 8AM Wednesday to 8AM Thursday will be the 24 hour window when potential local impacts from Tropical Storm Zeta will be MOST likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. We will add a more refined “greatest threat” timing window in a later update once we have a better idea of when specific local impacts will happen. Be ready for potential impacts Wednesday into Thursday. This is highly subject to change based on the latest forecast in the days ahead. Please check back for updates as the forecast becomes more precise.
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT TODAY… Any lingering areas of sprinkles and rain this morning will come to an end by midday. High temperatures will be in the 75-80° range on this Sunday. We should have sunshine in place in most spots by 3PM. Winds will be light (3-8 mph) and out of the north today.
DRY MONDAY; SCATTERED STORMS TUESDAY… Partly cloudy skies are expected on Monday with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Rain chances will begin to spike on Tuesday, primarily in the evening hours, as moisture content from Tropical Storm Zeta begins to surge into our region. Showers and storms will become possible near the coast first on Tuesday evening, spreading inland throughout the night into Wednesday.
ZETA IMPACTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… It seems like Wednesday into Wednesday night will be the time when impacts will be greatest locally due to Tropical Storm Zeta. Please see the paragraphs above concerning potential impacts for what to expect during this timeframe. Rain and storms will begin to clear out on Thursday in the late morning hours.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY… Cooler, drier air arrives behind a passing cold front on Friday. Skies will become sunny for Friday into Saturday with high temperatures expected to be in the mid-70s with morning lows in the low-50s by Friday night into early Saturday morning.
EPSILON ON THE WAY OUT… Hurricane Epsilon is rapidly moving northeast at 24 mph across the northern Atlantic Ocean southeast of Nova Scotia and south of Newfoundland in Canada. Epsilon is expected to transition to be a powerful extratropical storm before moving toward the UK and Ireland in the days ahead. Other than ongoing high waves along parts of the East Coast, impacts in the U.S. are not expected from Epsilon.
REST OF THE TROPICS ARE QUIET… Other than Hurricane Epsilon and Tropical Storm Zeta, there are currently no other areas of concern in the Atlantic Basin. I suspect, based on the latest model guidance in the medium- and long range that we will have other areas of concern pop up in the next 2 weeks, which serves as a reminder that hurricane season is not over just yet. We have about a month left until the official end of the season on November 30.
APP ALERTS… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have updates throughout the day as needed in the RedZone Weather app with my next detailed update expected to be posted by 9PM this evening. Have a great Sunday!