4:43PM October 27, 2020

CONCERNS ABOUT FALLING TREES DURING TROPICAL STORM ZETA… There is concern that many trees that were weakened by Hurricane Sally a few weeks ago could potentially pose big problems in Tropical Storm Zeta as the storm passes through our area tomorrow (Wednesday) night. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for all parts of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida as tropical storm force (39+ mph) winds are expected across the region. Hurricane Sally downed many trees, but many more were left in tact yet highly weakened by the storm. I spoke with Marshall Bracken, a manager for MO Equipment and MO Forestry, about this issue across our region.

4PM ADVISORY – TROPICAL STORM ZETA… After moving across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico last night, Zeta emerged as a fractured tropical storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico earlier this morning. Deeper convection is yet again firing around the center of circulation, meaning Zeta is probably in the process of strengthening yet again. Some strengthening IS forecast before landfall in southeastern Louisiana on Wednesday evening.

TORNADO RISK AT THE COAST STARTS WEDNESDAY; SPREADS INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Tornadoes will be possible in the outer rain bands of Zeta that spread across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Wednesday. The tornado risk will continue into Thursday morning. It should be emphasized that we do NOT have a tornado risk today (Tuesday). The tornado risk will likely start first around the Alabama and northwest Florida coastline and gradually spread eastward and inland throughout the night on Wednesday night into early Thursday. Tropical tornadoes generally do not last long, but they can cause localized areas of damage and still are very serious in some cases. If we have tornado warnings at any point over the next few days, be sure to join us in our live video coverage that will remain on the air as long as the warning is in effect. redzoneweather.com/coverage outlines our tornado warning coverage commitment in great detail. The Storm Prediction Center has included basically all of our local area in their Levels 1 and 2 (out of 5) tornado risk zones.

ZETA LANDFALL IN LA OR MS BUT IMPACTS LIKELY IN AL & NW FL… Hurricane Zeta will likely make landfall in southeast Louisiana on Wednesday evening as a category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm. Zeta will likely be feeling the effects of increasing southwesterly shear and cooler water temps on Wednesday evening ahead of landfall, but it still is likely to be a strong storm with widespread rain and impacts as it moves onshore. There still is some chance that Zeta could make landfall in Mississippi, Alabama, or even northwest Florida, but clearly the odds of a direct landfall in Louisiana are increasing. Keep in mind that local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida are likely to be maximized 6-12 hours AFTER the official landfall happens since Zeta will be moving northeast toward the area after landfall. The storm will be moving toward our local area from the southwest.

LOCAL ZETA IMPACTS MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT… The timeframe for local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida from Zeta will happen from Noon on Wednesday to Noon on Thursday with the greatest threat being from 5PM Wednesday to 2AM Thursday.

TORNADO RISK AT THE COAST STARTS WEDNESDAY; SPREADS INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Tornadoes will be possible in the outer rain bands of Zeta that spread across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Wednesday. The tornado risk will continue into Thursday morning. It should be emphasized that we do NOT have a tornado risk today (Tuesday). The tornado risk will likely start first around the Alabama and northwest Florida coastline and gradually spread eastward and inland throughout the night on Wednesday night into early Thursday. Tropical tornadoes generally do not last long, but they can cause localized areas of damage and still are very serious in some cases. If we have tornado warnings at any point over the next few days, be sure to join us in our live video coverage that will remain on the air as long as the warning is in effect. redzoneweather.com/coverage outlines our tornado warning coverage commitment in great detail. The Storm Prediction Center has included basically all of our local area in their Levels 1 and 2 (out of 5) tornado risk zones.

HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING RISK… Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will be most likely to happen locally in parts of Clarke, Washington, Monroe, Mobile, and Baldwin counties in southwest Alabama. 2 to 4 inches of rainfall in total will happen in these counties. While that is quite a bit of rainfall, this storm likely won’t be anything like what happened only a few weeks ago with Hurricane Sally when widespread totals of 15-25″ of rain happened. Isolated instances of flash flooding may become possible on Wednesday into Thursday where storms train over the same areas.

HIGH WINDS MOST LIKELY OVER WEST ALABAMA LOCALLY… Tropical storm force winds will be possible across the local area, but the greatest probability of sustained tropical storm force winds will happen in southwest Alabama in parts of Clarke, Monroe, Washington, and Mobile counties. These are the counties that will be closest locally to the center of Zeta, based on the latest forecast guidance. Further forecast changes may put our entire region under the threat of sustained tropical storm force winds (40-55 mph).

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

SET UP APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

NEXT UPDATE… I will have another detailed LIVE video update this evening starting at some point between 7PM and 9PM. Until then, we will have plenty of rolling updates being posted in the RedZone Weather app. See you this evening!

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