MAINLY SUNNY TODAY; RAIN & STORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY; TRACKING ETA… Mostly sunny and nice conditions are expected on this Monday ahead of higher rain chances locally later this week. Eta is now slowly moving westward, centered near the Florida Keys this morning. Eta will likely remain in the southern Gulf over the next few days, not moving much and basically meandering over the same areas. Local impacts, other than an ongoing risk of high waves and rip currents at local beaches, are expected to be limited based on the latest ongoing model guidance. Let’s look at all of your Monday forecast details.
MOSTLY SUNNY & WARM TODAY… Today may end up being our driest day out of the next 7 days as we have at least a small rain chance in each of the next 6 days. Mostly sunny skies are expected across the region on this Monday. High temperatures will peak in the low-80s.
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY… Isolated showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours as a frontal boundary begins to approach our area from the west. In addition, some of the moisture in the outer circulation of Eta will be flung into our area from the east and southeast. We won’t have an “all day washout” on Tuesday, but we will have
SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY… Rain chances are increasing for Veterans Day on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are slated to happen ahead of a frontal boundary that will slowly move into our area. This, in combination with moisture from Eta on the northwestern flank of the storm, will cause rain chances to be elevated. Widespread severe weather remains highly unlikely, as of now.
ETA NOW CENTERED NEAR FLORIDA KEYS… The center of circulation of Tropical Cyclone Eta is located very near the Florida Keys on this Monday morning. A substantial chunk of the heavy rain and storms associated with Eta are well away from the center on the northeastern side of the storm. Eta will continue to gradually move west into the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.
BIG RAIN AHEAD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA… Eta is now moving west and will be in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. The center of the storm won’t be moving that much at all. This means that rain and storms will continue to be possible across much of the Florida Peninsula (not the Panhandle locally, but the Peninsula around Miami). We note the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) continues to show an additional 4 to 5 inches of rainfall being possible in South Florida through Friday. Inland flooding will continue to be a real concern for South Florida over the next few days.
TROPICAL WAVE IN CARIBBEAN SEA… The National Hurricane Center continues to outline an area of concern in the central Caribbean Sea where a tropical storm may develop in the days ahead. The odds of tropical storm formation are now at a 50% chance. From NHC: “A tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea, where an area of low pressure could form in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development as the system moves slowly westward through the end of the week.”
TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE IN ATLANTIC… It is fairly common late in the hurricane season to get a few instances of low pressure developing in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, east of Bermuda, but well west of Africa and Europe. This is happening now, with an area of low pressure situated southwest of the Azores. NHC gives this area of low pressure a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm as the system moves east.
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See all the details in your Monday #rzw forecast video