RAIN & STORMS TODAY; MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON WEDNESDAY… Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region on this Tuesday ahead of a major severe weather setup on Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center now includes inland areas of south Alabama in their Level 4 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone where widespread severe weather is likely to happen. Tornadoes are likely to happen tomorrow. There is a chance for long track, significant tornadoes (EF2+). Even in areas south of the Level 4 risk, which technically is a large chunk of our local area in the Level 3 risk zone, there is a significant tornado risk. This long, detailed post outlines timing, placement, and specifics.
LOW-END, LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY… The Storm Prediction Center maintains a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for TODAY into this evening across inland areas of south Alabama. Much of Washington, Clarke, Choctaw, Marengo, Wilcox, Monroe, Butler, Escambia (AL), Covington, and Crenshaw counties are included, along with points north and east of those counties. The main concern today is conditional in nature, meaning a specific set of circumstances would have to happen in order for severe storms to happen. The odds of this set of circumstances happening remains low. If storms can fire up to severe levels, gusty winds and large hail will be the main concerns with a low-end tornado risk.
WHAT TO EXPECT – TODAY… Scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms are expected across the region on this Tuesday, very similar to what happened yesterday. Winds will be out of the south at 5-10 mph. Not everyone will have rain today, but there could be isolated downpours at times. High temperatures will be near the 80 degree mark this afternoon.
SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY… Tomorrow (Wednesday, March 17, 2021) has the makings of a potentially significant severe weather day across much of the Deep South. The Storm Prediction Center continues to outlook a large chunk of the American South in an expansive severe weather risk zone. Strong, long-tracked, and potentially violent tornadoes may become possible in some areas. The greatest risk of tornadoes across the local area (south Alabama and northwest Florida) will likely be inland counties along, north, and west of Interstate 65. We note this is an approximation and tornadoes certainly are possible in areas outside of that zone. The big takeaway is we ALL have a severe weather risk Wednesday into early Thursday morning.
UPDATED: SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY… We continue to observe trends across various weather models that suggest the main line of thunderstorms may not exit our region until 4-5AM on Thursday morning. There also has been some data that suggests severe, discrete storms may fire up over east Mississippi and west Alabama as early as 1PM Wednesday. Accordingly, we can now suggest that the timeframe for severe weather issues across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida will be from 1PM Wednesday to 5AM Thursday with the core threat being 3PM to 3AM.
LEVEL 4 (OUT OF 5) SIGNIFICANT RISK… The greatest risk of strong tornadoes is expected to happen farther inland across parts of central and north Alabama on Wednesday. A Level 4 risk means that widespread severe storms are LIKELY to happen, including tornadoes. This Level 4 (out of 5) risk zone does extend as far south as some of our inland communities. The following places locally are involved in the Level 4 risk: Thomasville, Grove Hill, Fulton, Coffeeville, Whatley, Beatrice, Tunnel Springs, Hybart, Keith, Old Texas, Forest Home, Starlington, and Greenville. The Level 4 risk also includes many places in central and north Alabama: Birmingham, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Gadsden, Anniston, Selma, Demopolis, Camden, Butler, Livingston, Eutaw, Marion, Greensboro, Prattville, Hayneville, Wetumpka, Clanton, Hoover, Calera, Centreville, Aliceville, Cullman, Jasper, Fayette, Oneonta, Leeds, Talladega, Hamilton, Russellville, Florence, Decatur, Muscle Shoals, and surrounding areas.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK ZONE… Many of us in south Alabama and northwest Florida remain involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) risk zone, which is still quite significant and uncommon. A Level 3 risk means that numerous severe storms, including tornadoes, will be possible. The following communities locally are involved in the Level 3 risk: Prichard, Mt. Vernon, Creola, Citronelle, Wilmer, Bay Minette, Perdido, Stockton, Tensaw, Rabun, Lottie, Atmore, Huxford, Bratt, Byrneville, Century, Jay, Berrydale, Brewton, East Brewton, Flomaton, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lenox, Range, Repton, Andalusia, Red Level, Carolina, Straughn, Gantt, Heath, Opp, Florala, Monroeville, Uriah, Excel, Frisco City, Jackson, Leroy, Chatom, Millry, McIntosh, and surrounding areas.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK ZONE… Farther south, a Level 2 (out of 5) risk is in place for communities closer to the coast. This is the zone where scattered severe storms may happen, potentially including a tornado or two. This Level 2 risk includes: Mobile, Pensacola, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Foley, Robertsdale, Silverhill, Magnolia Springs, Loxley, Pace, Milton, Navarre, Gulf Breeze, Dauphin Island, Bayou La Batre, Destin, Crestview, Niceville, and Fort Walton Beach. We note farther east that Dothan, Enterprise, Geneva, Abbeville, Daleville, Seaside, Freeport, Santa Rosa Beach, and Miramar Beach are also included in this Level 2 risk zone.
DON’T GET SO CAUGHT UP IN THE ZONE SPECIFICS… Jake Reed, an instructor at my alma mater (UA), tweeted this great and highly relevant tweet early this morning: “No matter the color or category, the environment will support very dangerous, and rapidly changing weather on Wednesday in Alabama. Knowing where your safe place is and ensuring you can receive watches and warnings should be top priority.” This is a helpful reminder not to get TOO caught up in the specific risk level or color zone in the convective outlooks. While the risk of tornadoes IS higher in the higher risk zones, tornadoes can and do happen OUTSIDE of the highest risk zones with severe weather setups like what is expected tomorrow.
STORMS CLEAR OUT THURSDAY MORNING… Thunderstorms are expected to clear out of our region on Thursday in the early morning hours as cooler, drier, much more stable air moves in behind the advancing cold front. Some lingering showers may be possible through the mid-morning hours but I expect all of the rain to be to our east by Noon on Thursday. Partly cloudy skies are expected Thursday with high temperatures in the mid-70s.
COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND… High temperatures will drop into the upper-60s for Friday and the upcoming weekend with overnight lows expected to be in the mid-40s. Other than a few passing clouds, the weekend is expected to be quiet with no major weather issues.
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed update will be posted later this evening unless warranted before that. Have a good Tuesday!
