DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SETUP FOR ALABAMA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY… The Deep South will likely endure an outbreak of severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, hail, and flash flooding. Some of the tornadoes may be strong and potentially on the ground for a long time. While the highest risk of severe weather will likely be placed across east-central Mississippi and west-central Alabama, there is a very high chance our local area in south Alabama and perhaps even northwest Florida will have a few tornado warnings. It is critical that we spread the messaging about this setup wide and far. Please help me do this by passing this info to folks that may not be as “weather aware” as you are.
A NOTE ABOUT THE RARE LEVEL 4 AND LEVEL 5 RISK ZONES… Right now, there is a Level 4 (out of 5) severe weather risk in place for much of Alabama and Mississippi. Please know that Level 5 (out of 5) risk days are extraordinarily rare. The last time our entire area in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida was fully encompassed in the Level 5 (out of 5) HIGH risk zone was in 2007, over 14 years ago! With that in mind, the Level 4 risk zone is just about as serious as you can get semi-regularly around here. Regardless of if SPC decides to issue a Level 5 risk or not, Level 3 and Level 4 risks are QUITE serious! I don’t want anyone to fall into the trap of thinking this isn’t a big deal – it absolutely IS a big deal across the entire region! I have had questions today on if I think SPC will upgrade part of the state into a Level 5 risk. My response: It really does not matter. Level 4 and Level 5 risks are both extremely serious.
TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY… Tornadoes will be the first concern on Wednesday afternoon ahead of a combined tornado and damaging wind risk later in the evening and overnight hours. There is a chance some of the tornadoes that form on Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours could be long track, strong tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center maintains inland areas of south Alabama and points north in their Level 4 (out of 5) major severe weather risk zone. It is absolutely critical that we all have multiple ways to get urgent weather warnings tomorrow into early Thursday morning. You will need to have a way to get warnings before you go to sleep Wednesday night. A few Tuesday afternoon updates are below.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY… The timeframe for severe weather issues across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida will be from 1PM Wednesday to 5AM Thursday with the core threat being 3PM to 3AM. The first round of storms will feature an enhanced, potentially significant, tornado threat as afternoon storms that can fire up will likely be discrete and isolated in nature. The secondary round of storms happens later in the evening and will bring the potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and much more in the way of rainfall. Please keep in mind there is a real chance a big chunk of our area will be without rain for much of the day on Wednesday. The discrete storms that can be quite problematic and produce large tornadoes are often comparatively small, thus even though it may be quite sunny and nice where you are located, there still is a significant severe weather risk in place.
FIRST ROUND OF STORMS: WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING… Supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes will be possible on Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. The latest high-resolution model guidance points to the greatest risk of tornadoes locally happening in west Alabama. This means if you are in Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Wilcox, Choctaw, or Marengo counties, your specific area is probably going to be “first up” to see the tornado potential on Wednesday afternoon. These are the specific cells that could produce long track, strong tornadoes.
SECOND ROUND OF STORMS: WEDNESDAY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT… The secondary round of severe weather will consist of a line of thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of a squall line (QLCS). This line of storms may be more like a broken line of supercells that have an enhanced tornado potential compared to a typical squall line of storms. This line of storms will cross south Alabama and northwest Florida from west to east. High-res model guidance, at the moment, shows the line of strong to severe storms moving across our region from 10PM to 6AM, although keep in mind that there is “wiggle room” and storms may exist outside of that very specific timeframe. The main concerns in this secondary round of storms will be damaging straight line winds, tornadoes, hail, and flash flooding.
THIS EVENING – WHAT TO EXPECT… Before we get to the significant round of severe storms on Wednesday, we do have an ongoing, Level 1 (out of 5) low-end risk this evening into TONIGHT across south Alabama and northwest Florida. While the overall tornado risk remains low through tomorrow morning, the risk is not entirely zero. The main concerns in any storms that can ramp up to strong levels will be gusty winds and hail today into tonight. I will have radar updates as needed in the RedZone Weather app over the next few hours.
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I’ll have more updates throughout the evening in the RedZone Weather app as needed. We will go into live, uninterrupted video coverage if and when tornado warnings become required tomorrow into Thursday.
My next detailed forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a good Tuesday evening!
