VERY RARE LEVEL 5 (OUT OF 5) HIGH RISK FOR WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA & MISSISSIPPI… The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded parts of west-central Alabama and Mississippi into a very rare Level 5 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for today (Wednesday, March 17, 2021) into early Thursday. Parameters supporting long track, large, violent tornadoes have increased to the point where SPC feels it is warranted to issue this highest risk level. PLEASE note that even if you are not involved in the Level 5 risk zone, strong tornadoes can and probably will happen in the other risk zones. We ALL have a significant round of severe weather ahead later today into early Thursday across much of the Deep South, including ALL of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. There is now much higher confidence in a high impact severe weather event. It cannot be stressed enough that everyone needs to be aware of this and HAVE A WAY TO GET WARNINGS this afternoon, this evening, into early Thursday morning!
JUST HOW RARE ARE LEVEL 5 (OUT OF 5) RISK DAYS… This is the first Level 5 (out of 5) high risk day for any part of Alabama since the tornado outbreak that happened on April 28, 2014. Before that, the previous high risk zone in the state was on April 27, 2011 when 252 people passed away in the generational tornado outbreak. All of that to say: This type of risk is rare across the nation and rare across the state. This is the first high risk zone we’ve had for any part of Alabama in 7 years.
LEVEL 5 (OUT OF 5) HIGH RISK… The core of today’s expected tornado outbreak is expected to be centered in the Level 5, high risk zone that is now in place for much of north-central Mississippi and the far western part of central Alabama. This is the zone where long track, violent tornadoes are most likely to happen. Damage could be widespread and extensive. Parts of Sumter, Greene, Pickens, and Lamar counties in west-central Alabama are involved in this high risk zone, including communities like Geiger, Livingston, Aliceville, Reform, Gordo, Carrollton, and Vernon. Many more communities in the state of Mississippi are included in this high risk zone, including Jackson, Starkville, Oxford, Columbus, Tupelo, Greenwood, Greenville (MS), and Vicksburg.
LEVEL 4 (OUT OF 5) RISK… Widespread severe storms, including the potential for long track, strong tornadoes will be possible in the Level 4 (out of 5) risk zone. Locally, parts of Clarke, Washington, Monroe, Conecuh, and Butler counties are involved in this Level 4 risk, including Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Leroy, Chatom, Millry, Wagerville, Monroeville, Beatrice, Greenville, and surrounding areas. Much of central and north Alabama is also involved in this significant Level 4 risk zone, including Camden, Butler, Sweet Water, Linden, Montgomery, Selma, Demopolis, Uniontown, Clanton, Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Alexander City, Wetumpka, Rockford, Jasper, Double Springs, Hamilton, Russellville, Florence, Muscle Shoals, Oneonta, Decatur, Gadsden, Anniston, Talladega, and surrounding areas.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK… The Level 3 (out of 5) risk zone has been expanded somewhat since last night and now includes Mobile, Prichard, Creola, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Mt. Vernon, Citronelle, Wilmer, Bay Minette, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Fairhope, Loxley, Stapleton, Perdido, Stockton, Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Poarch, Huxford, Evergreen, Castleberry, Owassa, Uriah, Frisco City, Excel, Georgiana, McKenzie, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Carolina, Straughn, Red Level, Crestview, Milton, Pace, Century, Walnut Hill, Molino, Jay, and surrounding areas. Several places in eastern Alabama are included in the Level 3 risk as well: Troy, Auburn, Enterprise, Elba, Geneva, Daleville, Abbeville, Eufaula, Phenix City, and surrounding areas.
LEVEL 2 RISK NEAR THE COAST… Several communities closer to the coast are in somewhat of a lower risk zone, but we note severe storms will still be possible in these locales, mainly in the secondary batch of storms that will move through in the overnight hours. This Level 2 (out of 5) risk includes Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Fort Morgan, Perdido Key, Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Destin, Niceville, Fort Walton Beach, Mary Esther, and surrounding areas.
MAIN HAZARDS LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY A.M. ARE TORNADOES & HIGH WIND… Strong, potentially long-track, tornadoes will become possible across parts of the Deep South, including across our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida this afternoon and into the evening hours in what will likely be a potentially significant severe weather outbreak. Damaging winds and large hail will also be concerns. Flash flooding is also a concern, especially farther inland in areas that have had quite a bit of rain over the last few days.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY… The timeframe for severe weather issues across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida will be from 1PM this afternoon to 5AM Thursday with the core threat being 3PM to 3AM. The first round of storms will feature an enhanced, potentially significant, tornado threat as afternoon storms that can fire up will likely be discrete and isolated in nature. The secondary round of storms happens later in the evening and will bring the potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and much more in the way of rainfall. Please keep in mind there is a real chance a big chunk of our area will be without rain for much of the day. The discrete storms that can be quite problematic and produce large tornadoes are often comparatively small, thus even though it may be quite sunny and nice where you are located, there still is a significant severe weather risk in place.
FIRST ROUND OF STORMS: THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING… Supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes will be possible first in the afternoon, extending into the evening hours. The latest high-resolution model guidance continues to point to the greatest risk of tornadoes locally happening in west Alabama. This means if you are in Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Wilcox, Choctaw, or Marengo counties, your specific area is probably going to be “first up” to see the tornado potential this afternoon. These are the specific cells that could produce long track, strong tornadoes.
SECOND ROUND OF STORMS: LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT… The secondary round of severe weather will consist of a line of thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of a squall line (QLCS). This line of storms may be more like a broken line of supercells that have an enhanced tornado potential compared to a typical squall line of storms. This line of storms will cross south Alabama and northwest Florida from west to east. High-res model guidance continues to show the line of strong to severe storms moving across our region from 9PM to 6AM. The main concerns in this secondary round of storms will be damaging straight line winds, tornadoes, hail, and flash flooding.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have an updated forecast video posted by 7:15AM detailing the very latest information. In addition, be sure to join us later today in live video coverage when/if tornado warnings become necessary for our local area. Have a nice Wednesday and please stay safe!
