TORNADO WATCH EXPIRED; LOW-END TORNADO RISK TONIGHT… Impacts from the system that once was powerful Hurricane Ida are finally beginning to lessen somewhat across our region. While heavy rain and storms continue near Andalusia, Crestview, and Destin, much of our area is now in a lull between rounds of storms. A new band of strong thunderstorms has developed across southeast Mississippi and will move across our region in the hours ahead. I am not yet able to give the complete “all clear” from Ida impacts just yet, as we do have a risk of a few more tornadoes tonight and into the overnight hours. The threat overnight into Tuesday morning will be a much lower-end risk compared to the round of storms we had earlier today. This is because the stronger dynamics associated with Ida are finally beginning to move farther away from our local area. Please note I will give a definitive, 100% all clear from the tornado risk at some point tomorrow. A few forecast notes of what you should expect in the overnight hours into Tuesday are below.
LOW-END TORNADO RISK ACROSS ENTIRE REGION… All parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida will continue to have a risk, albeit a lower-end risk, of a few tornadoes in the overnight hours into Tuesday morning. I am not expecting to have numerous tornado warnings all night, but what I am expecting is the possibility of one or two warnings overnight due to brief, spin-up circulations that could produce a tornado or two. The tornado risk will be slightly higher through 2AM. After that, the risk will continue to lessen even more. Tonight is NOT a night when you should “stay up and stress” about a tornado. The risk is so low that I would strongly recommend going to sleep and simply having multiple ways to hear warnings. That is my plan tonight and what I will be doing. If we happen to have any more warnings, I will start our live video coverage shortly after the warning is issued.
NO NEW TORNADO WATCH NEEDED, FOR NOW… The local National Weather Service offices, in coordination with the Storm Prediction Center, decided not to issue a new Tornado Watch at 4PM as the overall risk of tornadoes is now lower. Again, a warning or two can’t be ruled out, but the spatial coverage of warnings is expected to be much less than earlier. We may have another Tornado Watch issued for parts of the eastern side of our region overnight or tomorrow morning ahead of an uptick in activity to our east.
TORNADOES POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST ALABAMA, FLORIDA PANHANDLE, GEORGIA TOMORROW… The Storm Prediction Center currently has much of east Alabama, western Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle region involved in their Level 2 (out of 5) tornado risk valid for tomorrow (Tuesday). This includes places like Auburn, Dothan, Troy, Enterprise, Abbeville, Eufaula, Alexander City, Roanoke, Atlanta, LaGrange, Columbus, Bainbridge, Panama City, Port St. Joe, Marianna, Apalachicola, and Wewahitchka. These will be the areas with the greatest tornado risk on Tuesday.
OCCASIONAL RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY… Scattered rain and thunderstorms will be possible overnight and into Tuesday. I expect the overall coverage of rain to likely ramp up throughout the day on Tuesday. If rain trains over the same areas, more flash flood warnings may be required. A Flash Flood Watch continues for the entire local area.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING & STORM SURGE WARNING CANCELLED… Now that Ida is a tropical depression, all Tropical Storm Warnings and Storm Surge Warnings have been cancelled. Gusty (10-25 mph) winds may continue at times both inland and at the coast of Alabama and northwest Florida.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN CARIBBEAN SEA… An area of disturbed weather associated with an area of low pressure is likely to develop in the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea near the coast of Nicaragua. This system will likely move northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this weekend. The National Hurricane Center gives this disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical storm. Certainly nothing to worry about at the moment, just something to watch over the next few days.
TROPICAL STORM KATE & ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE… TD10 became Tropical Storm Kate earlier today. Kate is located in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Nearly all of the computer models show Tropical Storm Kate remaining weak and moving out to sea in the days ahead. Good news! We’re also watching a tropical wave that has just emerged from Africa that will likely become a tropical storm in the next few days. Next names on the tropical naming list: Larry and Mindy.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
I will have updates as needed posted overnight in the RedZone Weather app and of course, if we have tornado warnings locally, I’ll come on Facebook Live and on YouTube Live to bring you the very latest information. Have a nice Monday evening!