SUNNY DAYS AHEAD; RAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT… Mostly sunny skies are expected on this Monday and over the next several days as our weather pattern finally is set to be fairly quiet. High temperatures today and in the days ahead will be above our climatological norms for this time of year. Highs today will be in the mid- to upper-80s. Sunshine is set to continue to be our local weather headline until Friday. That is when a cold front will begin to move toward our area. While a few showers may be possible on Friday, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours, it appears the greatest rain chance this week will happen on Saturday when the frontal boundary is crossing our area. Cooler temperatures are set to arrive on Sunday. A few more Monday morning forecast notes are below.
TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE OVER NEXT FEW DAYS… Before the cooler air arrives in the latter half of the upcoming weekend, temperatures across the local area will be above our normal temperatures for mid-October. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-80s with morning lows in the mid-60s. Normally during this time of the year, we experience highs in the upper-70s with morning lows in the upper-50s, meaning temperatures (on average) are running 5 to 10 degrees above normal. This trend will continue through Friday.
COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY… Much cooler, much drier air arrives on Sunday as a cold front clears out of our area to the southeast. Sunday will feature high temperatures in the mid- to upper-70s with overnight lows in the upper-50s early Sunday morning and closer to 50° by Monday morning.
TROPICS: AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR N.C. COAST… An area of disturbed weather near the North Carolina coast has a 20% chance of briefly becoming a tropical storm today or tomorrow as the system begins to move northeast away from the U.S. From NHC: Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association with a large, non-tropical low pressure area located about 80 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that investigated the low earlier today found that the system was still producing a small area of gale-force winds just offshore the North Carolina outer banks. However, dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to decrease the chance for further development of this system. The low is forecast to move slowly northeastward today, with the center remaining just offshore the eastern North Carolina coast this afternoon and tonight. Interests in that area should continue to monitor the progress of this system and refer to local National Weather Service office products for more information. Regardless of development, intermittent periods of locally heavy rains and gusty winds will affect southeastern and eastern portions of North Carolina during the next day or so.”
TROPICS: TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES… A tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean has a 20-30% chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next few days as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. Right now, the tropical wave is situated about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. From NHC: “Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that a vigorous tropical wave located about 500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is producing a concentrated area of cloudiness and thunderstorms near the wave axis. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some additional development of this system while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the next few days. The disturbance is expected to approach the central and northern Lesser Antilles by late Monday and early Tuesday, and interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, the system will produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and across the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.”
TROPICS: GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS QUIET… No tropical storms or hurricanes are expected to be an issue for the Gulf of Mexico through Friday. Good news!
3 YEARS AFTER HURRICANE MICHAEL… Yesterday marked the 3 year anniversary of category 5 Hurricane Michael making landfall in Bay County, Florida. While our area was largely spared from the worst of the impacts, damage did happen in parts of Okaloosa County near Destin. In addition, the worst weather damage I have personally ever witnessed happened in parts of Bay and Gulf counties in the Florida Panhandle. I’ve seen the worst of the worst tornado damage, flood damage, and hurricane damage you can imagine and the damage from Hurricane Michael, particularly in Mexico Beach, FL, was the worst I have personally ever seen. The storm killed 31 people directly with 43 indirect deaths. $25.5 billion of damage happened due to Hurricane Michael, one of only four hurricanes to ever make landfall in the U.S. as a category 5 storm.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Monday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!