LOW-END CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR SOUTH… The National Hurricane Center now indicates in their Tropical Weather Outlook that the area of low pressure in the southern Caribbean Sea has a 10-20% chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next 5 days as it moves northwest.
LOCAL IMPACTS NOT LIKELY… Most models continue to suggest that this system will be a weak, tropical area of low pressure or a weak tropical storm as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico later this week into this weekend. We note many weather models take this system across the Bay of Campeche from east to west, ultimately bringing the system into Texas or the Mexico coast as a weak system. Local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida are not expected at this time.
LAND INTERACTION WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT… There’s a high chance that this system never becomes a tropical storm due to its interaction with the land of central America over the next few days.
NHC DISCUSSION… For those that care to read the National Hurricane Center’s official discussion on this system, here it is: “A broad area of showers and thunderstorms has persisted over the southwestern Caribbean Sea for the past several hours. This activity is associated with a tropical wave over northwestern Venezuela and a surface trough located just east of Nicaragua interacting with a large upper-level trough. Little development of this area of disturbed weather is expected over the next few days due to interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. However, environmental conditions could become somewhat more conducive for some limited development when the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday.”
APP ALERTS… I’ll have updates on this system over the next few days here in the RedZone Weather app. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive straight from me.
Have a great evening! Let me know if you have any questions.