RAIN & STORMS RETURN TOMORROW; LOW-END RISK OF STRONG STORMS WEST OF I-65… Our weather pattern will become more active this week with the first round of rain and thunderstorms set to move across our region on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has included part of our area in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk. That means a strong storm or two cannot completely be ruled out, yet widespread significant severe weather remains highly unlikely. The main concern in any storm that can briefly become strong tomorrow will be the risk of gusty winds. The tornado risk on Monday remains very low.
TIMING FOR RAIN & STORMS ON MONDAY… Rain will likely enter our local area in parts of Clarke and Washington counties around or just after the lunch hour (12PM) on Monday. A line of showers and storms will move from northwest to southeast across our region from Noon to 7PM, exiting south of Okaloosa and Santa Rosa counties by 7PM. A few showers may linger across the region after 7PM, but the bigger rain and storms will be weaker and to our south by that point. Keep in mind that storms will gradually be weakening as they cross our area tomorrow afternoon/evening, thus communities farther inland and west of I-65 have the greater chance of experiencing any storms that may briefly become stronger.
LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR PART OF LOCAL AREA… The Storm Prediction Center includes a big chunk of our local area in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone valid for Monday afternoon and evening. Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (AL), northern Covington, Conecuh, Butler, Crenshaw, Monroe, Clarke, Wilcox, Washington, Choctaw, and Marengo counties are involved in the low-end risk zone. We also note parts of northern Escambia (FL) County and far northwestern Santa Rosa County are included in the low-end risk zone. These arbitrary boundary lines are simply a general idea of where the “greater combination of atmospheric ingredients” may set up.
MOST AREAS WILL SIMPLY HAVE RAIN AT TIMES MONDAY… Rain could be heavy at times briefly as a line of showers and storms moves across our area in the afternoon and evening hours. Most communities will simply have rain and perhaps some thunder as this line of storms moves through. On most (not all, but most) Level 1 (out of 5) risk days, our area usually does not have tornado warnings issued. Can tornadoes happen on a Level 1 risk day? Yes, absolutely. But generally speaking, with a setup like what we are looking at for Monday, tornadoes are more of the anomaly than the trend. Most spots will simply have some rain and general storms.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Monday morning. Be sure to join me for that as we dive into the details regarding the rain and storms setting up for Monday afternoon. Have a nice Sunday evening!