SEVERE WEATHER RISK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY; TORNADOES POSSIBLE… No this isn’t an April Fools Day joke: Another severe weather risk is slated to set up across the Deep South on Tuesday into Wednesday across parts of the Deep South, including our local area. Tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding will again be the concerns. This is expected to be a multi-day severe weather setup with potentially two, distinct rounds of severe weather – one on Tuesday and one on Wednesday. The one silver lining to all this is that early data points to the potential for storms in the DAY time each day with little in the way of storms overnight. It is still early, and that idea may change in the days ahead, but early data indeed supports the thought of daytime storms. There remain many question marks this far out and clarity will come in the days ahead. Let’s look at what we know as of this Friday afternoon.
TUESDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK: TORNADO RISK & DAMAGING WINDS… South Alabama and northwest Florida will be in a warm and unstable airmass on Tuesday out ahead of an advancing trough. A surface area of low pressure will move northeast from Louisiana, providing enough forcing to cause at least some threat of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and northwest Florida. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has our entire local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk on Tuesday. Keep in mind, a Level 2 risk 4-5 days out is the same as a Level 2 risk 1-2 days out. The difference between the two scenarios is a lot of times we do see outlook upgrades in the days ahead of an event when Level 2 risks are issued this far out. Not always, but a lot of the time, that does happen as confidence in the severe weather risk increases.
WEDNESDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK: DAMAGING WINDS & A FEW TORNADOES… Wednesday could be a bit different than Tuesday in that a squall line (QLCS) is expected to develop well to our north and dive to the southeast throughout the day. This would likely be more of a damaging straight line wind risk with a few tornadoes also being possible. Confidence in the Wednesday severe weather setup is a bit less compared to Tuesday, but we note SPC now has the inland areas of southwest Alabama in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone valid on Wednesday.
SO MUCH SEVERE WEATHER – WHAT’S GOING ON?!… ‘Tis the season. We’re in the core of our primary, spring severe weather season that usually features an uptick in activity in March and April each year. What is a bit more unusual is just how much severe weather we have had as of late. SIX tornado warning days happened in our local area in the month of March. Since I started our tornado warning commitment for RedZone Weather several years ago, this is the first month with six tornado warning days. April 2020 featured 5 tornado warning days locally. So what is going on?! We are in an active weather pattern with numerous storm systems crossing the southern part of the United States. This pattern looks to continue into next week and potentially beyond. We’ll be with you every step of the way!
FEW SHOWERS NEAR COAST SATURDAY; DRY SUNDAY… There was some thought that Saturday could be wet across the region in previous forecasts, but the good news is nearly all of our area should remain dry tomorrow and certainly on Sunday. A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches on Saturday. Most communities, even closer to the coast, will remain dry. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid-70s areawide. Partly cloudy skies are expected throughout the day with mostly sunny skies on Sunday.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have another update posted this weekend. Many more updates over the next few days will be posted in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Friday evening – get out and enjoy the NICE weather we are having today!