TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY; LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK… Severe thunderstorms capable of producing all severe weather hazards, including tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail, will become possible again on Tuesday. The entire local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida remains involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk Tuesday, meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. Please have a way to hear warnings on Tuesday AND on Wednesday, when another risk will set up. Storms on Tuesday are most likely to happen in the daytime hours. A few more Sunday morning forecast notes are below.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TUESDAY… The one silver lining to this particular severe weather setup on both Tuesday and on Wednesday will be that both rounds of thunderstorms are likely to happen in the daytime hours as opposed to at night, like previous severe weather events over the last few weeks. 7AM to 7PM Tuesday will be the twelve hour window when severe thunderstorms are most likely to happen across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. I will continue to monitor incoming model data today and be able to give a “core risk window” in that twelve hour window in my post later this evening.
MAIN CONCERNS: TORNADOES & DAMAGING WIND GUSTS… All severe weather hazards will be possible on Tuesday across our region, including tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, large hail, and flash flooding. The risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will likely be the main concern. Tuesday will certainly be a time when we all need to have a way to get urgent weather warnings.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include an expansive area across the Deep South in their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Tuesday. Please keep in mind that just because this risk happens to be a bit lower than the last few severe weather risk zones our area has had in previous events does not mean that the impacts won’t be just as severe for some areas. The fact is, we can have EF2+ tornadoes on “slight risk days.” Just ask the folks in Century, FL and Flomaton, AL what happened on February 15, 2016 when an EF3-rated tornado moved through. That was a Level 2 (out of 5) risk day. It is true that the risk of significant tornadoes IS less likely on lower risk days, but the fact is ALL tornadoes, including “weak” and brief ones, are quite serious. All of south Alabama and northwest Florida is included in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone where scattered severe storms, including tornadoes, will be possible Tuesday.
MORE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY… In addition to the severe weather risk on Tuesday, we also have a Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk in place on Wednesday for much of Alabama, including inland areas north of U.S. Highway 84. The main severe weather hazard on Wednesday will be damaging straight line winds. The tornado risk may be a bit lower on Wednesday, but still not zero.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have more updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed forecast video and long form text discussion will be posted tomorrow (Monday) morning by 7:15AM. Have a nice Sunday!