SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY, MAINLY IN MORNING HOURS… Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain will become possible early Tuesday morning. The overall risk of severe weather on Tuesday may begin for some areas before sunrise and extend into the early afternoon hours. We have adjusted the 12 hour window for when strong to severe storms seem most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida: That window now runs from 4AM to 4PM. This unfortunately means that everyone will need a good, reliable way of getting urgent weather warnings on Monday night BEFORE you go to sleep, just in case tornado warnings are needed before daybreak Tuesday. A few more Sunday evening forecast notes are below.
UPDATED: SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TUESDAY… 4AM to 4PM will be the twelve hour window when severe thunderstorms are most likely to happen across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida on Tuesday. The core time frame for severe storms will likely be from 7AM to Noon. The severe weather risk on Wednesday, however, looks more likely to set up in the afternoon and evening hours.
MAIN CONCERNS: TORNADOES & DAMAGING WIND GUSTS… All severe weather hazards will be possible on Tuesday across our region, including tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, large hail, and flash flooding. The risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will likely be the main concern. Tuesday will certainly be a time when we all need to have a way to get urgent weather warnings.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include an expansive area across the Deep South in their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Tuesday. Please keep in mind that just because this risk happens to be a bit lower than the last few severe weather risk zones our area has had in previous events does not mean that the impacts won’t be just as severe for some areas. The fact is, we can have EF2+ tornadoes on “slight risk days.” Just ask the folks in Century, FL and Flomaton, AL what happened on February 15, 2016 when an EF3-rated tornado moved through. That was a Level 2 (out of 5) risk day. It is true that the risk of significant tornadoes IS less likely on lower risk days, but the fact is ALL tornadoes, including “weak” and brief ones, are quite serious. All of south Alabama and northwest Florida is included in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone where scattered severe storms, including tornadoes, will be possible Tuesday.
MORE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY… In addition to the severe weather risk on Tuesday, we also have a Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk in place on Wednesday for much of Alabama, including inland areas north of U.S. Highway 84. The main severe weather hazard on Wednesday will be damaging straight line winds. The tornado risk may be a bit lower on Wednesday, but still not zero.
APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
I will have your next detailed forecast video and long form text discussion posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Until then, more brief updates will be posted overnight and into the morning in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Sunday evening!