HEAVY RAIN LIKELY AT TIMES TODAY AND MONDAY; LOW-END TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT CHANCE… The National Hurricane Center has flagged the first tropical development chance of the year: A system that is highly unlikely to develop into a named storm, yet a system that will bring heavy rain and general thunderstorms to our local area over the next 36 hours. There is a very low-end, 10% chance that this system organizes to the point that it becomes a tropical storm over the next day or so before moving inland across northwest Florida. While this system probably won’t take a name, it is a sign that we are rapidly approaching the start of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The season will begin on Wednesday, June 1 and run until November 30. We note that scattered thunderstorms are likely across the region this afternoon and into the evening hours. Numerous storms are likely at times on Monday as well.
10% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT… The National Hurricane Center indicates the broad area of disturbed weather in the northern Gulf of Mexico is not likely to become a named tropical storm. Here is the official text from NHC as of 1PM CDT: “An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with a surface trough of low pressure over the north central Gulf of Mexico. Surface pressures remain high, and environmental conditions do not appear favorable for significant development before this system moves inland over the central Gulf Coast in a day or so. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the central Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.”
WHAT TO EXPECT – THIS AFTERNOON… More scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across south Alabama and northwest Florida in the hours ahead. Some of the storms could be on the strong side, producing torrential downpours of rain, cloud-to-ground lightning, and gusty winds. Widespread severe weather is not expected and the overall tornado risk today remains at or near zero.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. More updates will be posted this afternoon into this evening in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Sunday evening!