NEW TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO FORM IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA; COULD MOVE TOWARD GULF… The National Hurricane Center says there is a 70% chance of a new tropical storm developing over the next few days in the eastern Caribbean Sea. The overall pattern suggests a likely movement toward the western Caribbean Sea in the next 5-7 days. The overall environment ahead of this system points to strengthening (detailed below). Despite the craziness that is already ensuing with folks posting single run model images left and right, be advised that NO ONE can tell you exactly when this system will develop or where it will ultimately move. Yes, the pattern is favorable for development and the overall synoptic setup points to a tropical system in the vicinity of the western Caribbean or southern Gulf in about one week. Beyond that, plenty of question marks remain. At this stage, no need to stress or worry. This is simply something to be aware of over the next few days. I will have plenty more updates posted in the RedZone Weather app and on our social platforms. More details below.
STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS LIKELY… What is concerning is the lack of obstacles ahead for this developing system, meaning other than land interaction, I do not see many factors that will prohibit strengthening. Sea surface temperatures in the western Caribbean Sea are in the 85-88° range. Unlike the last several weeks when atmospheric shear has been anomalously high at times, the shear out ahead of this system is forecast to remain more moderate in nature. These two factors could aid in the development of this tropical system.
LONG RANGE UNCERTAINTY… While you’re almost certainly going to see wild, crazy model runs over the next few days, let me emphasize emphatically that NO ONE can tell you exactly where this developing tropical system will end up. The overall, large scale pattern favors a general westward movement over the next 2-3 days as the tropical wave moves through the Caribbean Sea. After that, the general model consensus points to a northwesterly movement near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Beyond that, no way to know specifics. Interests in the western Caribbean Sea and across the Gulf of Mexico region (from Mexico all the way over to Florida) should keep a close eye on this developing tropical system over the next few days. No reason to be scared or panic – situations like this are all too common in the peak part of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I’ll keep you posted in the RedZone Weather app.
HYPE & CLICKBAITERS OUT OF CONTROL… Hurricane season has been remarkably quiet for the Gulf of Mexico region over the last several weeks. The 2020 and 2021 seasons were both exceptionally active. Emerging research suggests the hyperactivity of the last two seasons created complacency and “storm fatigue” in that we had storm after storm wrecking havoc and causing many issues in MANY communities across the Atlantic Basin, including right here at home in Alabama and northwest Florida. It seems, unfortunately, “the pendulum” has swung far in the other direction over the last several weeks. I have seen countless professional meteorologists and purveyors of “weather pages” across social media use language that is seemingly “wishing” for big, bad hurricanes to happen. The lack of storms over the last few weeks during the peak of hurricane season has created a vacuum where many folks post the latest weather model runs (sometimes 2 weeks out! – insane) to drum up clicks, likes, and fear. I am actively documenting this phenomenon as we speak. You’ve heard me say it many times before – don’t feed the trolls. “Friends don’t let friends share fake news,” and unfortunately, there is a seemingly endless supply of fake news garbage posts going around ahead of the tropics likely becoming more active.
HURRICANE FIONA MOVING NORTH… Hurricane Fiona is centered only 40 miles north-northwest of Grand Turk Island in the Turks & Caicos this afternoon. Fiona is a major hurricane packing maximum sustained winds near 115 mph. Fiona is moving north-northwest at about 9 mph. The good news for the continental United States is that Fiona will NOT cause any direct impacts, other than large waves and rip currents along the Atlantic coastline in the days ahead. Significant (potential major hurricane) impacts will be possible in Bermuda Thursday into Friday due to Hurricane Fiona. In addition, impacts from Fiona are likely in parts of maritime Canada this weekend, specifically in parts of eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
T.D. 8 IN ATLANTIC; LIKELY TO BECOME T.S. GASTON… Tropical Depression Eight formed in the open waters of the north-central Atlantic Ocean earlier today. TD8 is well away from any land areas at the moment. The center of the depression is located about 1,110 miles west-southwest of The Azores. The official forecast from NHC calls for TD8 to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. If or when that happens, TD8 will take the name, “Gaston.” TD8/Gaston will continue moving north and northeast in the days ahead and will very likely never be a direct threat to North America.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have more updates on this developing tropical system posted over the next few days here on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app. Be sure to check in with me in the free app for the very latest information. Have a nice Tuesday afternoon!