SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TODAY; TROPICS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE… Numerous thunderstorms are set to pop up across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Thursday. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized downpours of rain, cloud-to-ground lightning, loud thunder, and gusty winds in the strongest of the storms. High temperatures will be around the 90 degree mark today. Looking ahead, we are watching two areas of concern in the tropics – one in the Caribbean Sea and one in the Atlantic Ocean.
P.M. STORMS LIKELY TODAY… Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely across the area at times on this Thursday. Most of the showers and thunderstorms will happen in the afternoon and evening hours. Widespread severe storms are not expected, but I am expecting an increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms today compared to the last few days. This means that MOST (not all, but most) communities will have rain and thunderstorms before the end of the day. High temperatures today will be closer to the 90 degree mark, as opposed to the mid-90s we’ve experienced over the last few days.
TROPICS: INVEST 94L MOVING WEST THROUGH CARIBBEAN SEA… Warm waters in the central Caribbean Sea are supporting convection and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave that has been branded as INVEST 94L. This system has a 10-20% chance of becoming a named tropical storm this weekend as the system approaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Model guidance shows a future path of the system into the Yucatan Peninsula, bringing impacts to parts of Mexico and Belize, ahead of the system emerging into the far southern Gulf. Most model guidance shows a path into mainland Mexico next week. This means that direct local impacts (other than rip currents at local beaches) would not be a concern in Alabama or northwest Florida.
TROPICS: 70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN ATLANTIC… The tropical wave that has moved off of the African continent and is now southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in the open waters of the east-central Atlantic Ocean continues to show signs of organization. The National Hurricane Center indicates there is a 70% chance of this tropical wave becoming a named tropical storm over the next few days. Several high profile global weather models show this system developing into a named storm and eventually a hurricane in the Caribbean Sea in about a week. While we typically don’t have to worry about systems developing this far out in the Atlantic during the month of June, sea surface temperatures are near record warm levels. In addition, the upper-level atmospheric conditions ahead of this system support intensification. NO one, and I truly mean no one, can tell you where this system will ultimately end up. What could be concerning, however, is IF this system is a hurricane in the western Caribbean Sea in 7-10 days, that means that the probability will be quite high for Gulf of Mexico and potential U.S. impacts. We will deal with that possibility with time. I’ll have updates over the next week or so.
P.M. POP-UP STORMS TO CONTINUE TOMORROW AND INTO WEEKEND… Our weather forecast will remain quite consistent as we go into the weekend. P.M. pop-up thunderstorms are likely on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Not every local community will have rain each day, but some inevitably will. It won’t be an “all day washout” on Saturday or on Sunday, but there will be scattered thunderstorms around. High temperatures will be in the low-90s each day.
MORE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF DRIER DAYS LATER IN WEEK… Scattered thunderstorms will continue to be likely early next week ahead of drier days becoming likely Wednesday and Thursday. There is a chance we may have a stretch of drier, hotter days starting at the end of next week.
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
See all the details in your Thursday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a great day!
