POP-UP STORMS TODAY AND INTO WEEKEND; HURRICANE EXPECTED TO FORM IN ATLANTIC… Scattered thunderstorms are likely at times on this Friday, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours. Just like yesterday, not every community will have rain before the end of the day, but MANY across the region will have rain and storms around. Widespread severe storms are not expected but thunderstorms will be capable of producing cloud-to-ground lightning, loud claps of thunder, gusty winds, and localized heavy downpours of rain. These pulse-type thunderstorms will fade away after sunset. High temperatures will be in the low-90s today. We continue to monitor two areas of concern in the tropics that both may develop into named tropical storms. The tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean now has a high (80+%) chance of development.
TROPICS: TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING YUCATAN PENINSULA… The area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave moving west-northwest through the western Caribbean Sea continues to be rather disorganized. The system will bring heavy rain to parts of Mexico and Belize across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend. The National Hurricane Center continues to suggest this system has a low-end (30%) chance of briefly becoming a named tropical storm either as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula in the western Caribbean Sea OR once it crosses the Yucatan and enters the far southern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche region. Regardless of if formal development happens, direct local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida are not expected other than a higher than normal risk of rip currents at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.
TROPICS: TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL ATLANTIC LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO HURRICANE… We will likely see the first strong tropical storm or hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season form over the weekend or early next week. INVEST 95L, the tropical wave located in the central Atlantic Ocean (currently well away from any land areas), has a high (80-90%) chance of becoming a named storm while moving westward. The system poses a threat to the Lesser Antilles early next week as it will very likely be near or at hurricane strength by that point. We have a high degree of confidence this system will be a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean Sea next week, but there is a very large amount of model track spread after 7 days. This is totally normal as it is next to impossible to predict, with any level of accuracy or precision, where a tropical system will end up after 7 days out. The big takeaway for our local area is: It is well too early to rule out local impacts due to this system. It is a bit abnormal to have a tropical wave develop in this part of the Atlantic Basin so early in the year, but it is not totally unprecedented. Check with me next week for updates. No need to stress over this during the weekend as the system remains well away from land and will continue to be that way through the weekend.
TROPICS: ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE BEHIND 95L… In addition to and totally separate from INVEST 95L (discussed in the previous paragraph), another tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the western coast of Africa that will have some chance of becoming a named tropical storm over the next week or so. Regardless of if formal development happens, the system won’t be a concern for land areas once moving away from the African continent for many days. Again, something to watch, but nothing at all to worry about for now.
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See all the details in your Friday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a good weekend!
