RISK OF TORNADOES TO RAMP UP ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT… Ongoing storms across our region will diminish before we see an increase in storm activity on Saturday into Saturday night. An uncommon Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk is in place for much of Louisiana, Mississippi, and west Alabama where the risk of strong tornadoes will be maximized. Surrounding that, a Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk is in place for many local communities. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible on Saturday, but the main event will likely be in the late evening and overnight hours into early Sunday morning.
UPDATE ON ONGOING STORMS… Thunderstorms are in progress in parts of Clarke, Washington, and Mobile counties as of 7:30PM when I am producing this update. There continues to be a persistent, over performing severe weather risk this evening. We have already had several tornado warnings in the last few hours. I cannot completely rule out a few more as the evening progresses, but I do expect the threat to continue to slowly diminish as the evening and night continues. I will be in studio over the next few hours posting updates in the RedZone Weather app. If we have more tornado warnings locally, I’ll get on Facebook Live and bring you the very latest information.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING… After the severe weather risk ends tonight, we likely get a break from severe storms until Saturday afternoon. There is some indication that a few, isolated strong to severe storms could happen as early as 3PM. Based on the latest data, however, it appears 8PM Saturday to 8AM Sunday is the twelve hour window when strong to severe thunderstorms will be MOST likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida with the risk ending from west to east. Unfortunately, this will mostly be an overnight risk, meaning we all have to have a way to hear warnings before going to sleep tomorrow night.
TORNADO RISK MAXIMIZED OVER LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI, AND WEST ALABAMA… The Storm Prediction Center has much of Louisiana, Mississippi, and west Alabama involved in an uncommon Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone valid for Saturday into Saturday night. It is in this zone where strong (EF2+) tornadoes will be most likely to happen. The damaging wind risk is also maximized in this zone. Right now, the Level 3 (out of 5) risk zone includes places like Chatom, Millry, Yarbo, Leroy, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Gilbertown, Toxey, Butler, Pennington, Sweet Water, Linden, Demopolis, Livingston, York, Geiger, Eutaw, Forkland, Aliceville, Gordo, Reform, Jackson (MS), Hattiesburg (MS), Meridian (MS), Columbus (MS), McComb (MS), Leakesville (MS), Waynesboro (MS), Laurel (MS), Alexandria (LA), Baton Rouge (LA), and Monroe (LA). If you know someone in or near these places, I would encourage you to let them know they are involved in a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk. Some of the storms may linger well into Saturday night, meaning dangerous, nocturnal tornadoes will be a concern.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR S.W. AL & PART OF N.W. FL… There is good news and bad news for much of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. The good news is thunderstorms tomorrow night *should* be weakening on approach to our local area. The bad news is that may not matter too much if storms are particularly strong. In other words, even if storms are “weakening,” the intensity level may be such that severe weather hazards (including tornadoes) are ongoing while storms cross our region. There continues to be a range of outcomes across the entire region (details below on the specific scenarios), but the big headline remains that tornadoes will be possible Saturday, particularly Saturday night. We note these are some of the places currently involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone: Mobile, Prichard, Citronelle, Bayou La Batre, Wilmer, Semmes, Sunny Cove, Dauphin Island, Spanish Fort, Daphne, Fairhope, Point Clear, Foley, Summerdale, Robertsdale, Bay Minette, Gateswood, Loxley, Tensaw, Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Poarch, Huxford, Damascus, Molino, Century, McDavid, Walnut Hill, Milton, Pace, Chumuckla, Berrydale, Jay, Cobbtown, Andalusia, River Falls, Red Level, Wing, Gantt Lake, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lenox, Belleville, Repton, Range, Owassa, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Forest Home, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Tunnel Springs, Excel, Frisco City, Perdue Hill, Gosport, Gainestown, Calvert, Pine Hill, Camden, Pine Apple, Selma, Luverne, Montgomery, Hayneville, Prattville, Clanton, Marion, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Cullman.
LOWER-END RISK CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FURTHER EAST… The overall severe weather risk will remain in a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) zone closer to the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, along with the Florida Panhandle region and east Alabama. A Level 1 (out of 5), low-end risk means that severe storms will be possible, but the overall coverage and intensity should remain limited. Of course, just like what happened earlier today, IF storms over perform, the risk could end up higher in this zone as well. For now, the low-end risk includes Dauphin Island, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Navarre, Baker, Crestview, Destin, Niceville, Eglin AFB, Seaside, Santa Rosa Beach, DeFuniak Springs, Panama City, Opp, Florala, Geneva, Elba, Enterprise, Dothan, Abbeville, Troy, Auburn, Lake Martin, Alexander City, and Opelika.
WHAT TO EXPECT – SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT… Rain and storms will be possible at times throughout the day on Saturday due to widely scattered storms. There is a chance some of these storms, perhaos as early as Saturday afternoon, become severe with brief tornadoes being possible. I expect the bigger, more significant round of storms to happen Saturday night. In addition to a risk of tornadoes (with a few strong, EF2+ tornadoes in LA, MS, and west Alabama), I am also concerned about the growing potential for damaging straight line wind gusts. Storms will probably remain scattered in nature ahead of a developing squall line that will push across our region from west to east in the overnight hours of Saturday into early Sunday.
RANGE OF OUTCOMES: BEST CASE & WORST CASE SCENARIOS… The best case scenario for tomorrow into tomorrow night is that scattered thunderstorms underperform throughout the day due to a currently unforeseen mismatch of severe weather ingredients that limits the overall tornado potential. Even in this best case scenario, looking at the parameters, I would expect 1-5 tornadoes across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and perhaps west Alabama. The most extreme and worst case scenario would be if thunderstorms remain more discrete in nature tomorrow during the day and evening hours, leading to a handful of potentially significant (EF3+) tornadoes across parts of LA, MS, and west Alabama followed by an over-performing QLCS/squall line that has widespread, significant damaging wind gusts. Neither of these two scenarios is the MOST LIKELY scenario, however.
RANGE OF OUTCOMES: MOST LIKELY SCENARIO… Several tornadoes are likely on Saturday into Saturday night across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and west Alabama. Some of these tornadoes could be on the ground for awhile and produce EF2 or higher rated damage. A line of thunderstorms will probably develop tomorrow evening across Mississippi and gradually push toward Alabama and northwest Florida. A few discrete, isolated storms may happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida ahead of the line of storms that could produce a few tornadoes. The overall intensity of storms will slowly diminish as storms move eastward overnight.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have updates posted throughout the night, as needed, in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed update will be posted tomorrow (Saturday) morning by 7:15AM unless tornado warning coverage is needed before that. Have a nice Friday evening!