SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT; PLEASE BE ABLE TO GET WARNINGS… Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, large hail, and flash flooding will be possible over the next 24 hours as a potentially significant severe weather event unfolds across the Deep South. Some of the tornadoes that develop today into tonight could be long track, EF2+ strong tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the severe weather risk to an uncommon Level 4 (out of 5) risk for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and west Alabama. In addition, much of our area in south Alabama and northwest Florida is now involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) risk. We encourage everyone to have multiple ways to hear warnings throughout the day and into the night across all of Alabama, northwest Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, southern Tennessee, western Georgia, and east Texas.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING… Thunderstorms are expected to be rather isolated in nature this morning into the afternoon hours. We may see an increase in the overall coverage of storms after 3PM. 8PM Saturday to 8AM Sunday is the twelve hour window when strong to severe thunderstorms will be MOST likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida with the risk ending from west to east. Unfortunately, this will mostly be an overnight risk, meaning we all have to have a way to hear warnings before going to sleep tonight. Please know that a few severe storms will be possible well in advance of the main storm timing window across our local area. The risk will ramp up tonight.
WHAT TO EXPECT – TODAY INTO TONIGHT… Rain and storms will be possible at times throughout the day today due to widely scattered storms. There is a chance some of these storms, perhaos as early as this morning, become severe with brief tornadoes being possible. I expect the bigger, more significant round of storms to happen overnight across our local area. The threat will maximize earlier in the day for areas to our west in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. In addition to a risk of tornadoes (with a few strong, EF2+ tornadoes in LA, MS, and west Alabama), I am also concerned about the growing potential for damaging straight line wind gusts. Storms will probably remain scattered in nature ahead of a developing squall line that will push across our region from west to east in the overnight hours into early Sunday.
RANGE OF OUTCOMES: BEST CASE & WORST CASE SCENARIOS… The best case scenario for today into tonight remains that scattered thunderstorms underperform throughout the day due to a currently unforeseen mismatch of severe weather ingredients that limits the overall tornado potential. Even in this best case scenario, looking at the parameters, I would expect 1-5 tornadoes across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and perhaps west Alabama. The most extreme and worst case scenario would be if thunderstorms remain more discrete in nature during the day and evening hours, leading to a handful of potentially significant (EF3+) tornadoes across parts of LA, MS, and west Alabama followed by an over-performing QLCS/squall line that has widespread, significant damaging wind gusts. Neither of these two scenarios is the MOST LIKELY scenario, however.
RANGE OF OUTCOMES: MOST LIKELY SCENARIO… Several tornadoes are likely today into tonight across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and west Alabama. Some of these tornadoes could be on the ground for awhile and produce EF2 or higher rated damage. A line of thunderstorms will probably develop this evening across Mississippi and gradually push toward Alabama and northwest Florida. A few discrete, isolated storms may happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida ahead of the line of storms that could produce a few tornadoes. The overall intensity of storms will slowly diminish as storms move eastward overnight. Please be able to hear warnings today, tonight, and into Sunday morning until all the storms are east of our local area.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have updates posted throughout the day, as needed, in the RedZone Weather app. Have a good Saturday and please stay safe!