Happy Labor Day, RZW Exec partners! Tropical Storm Gordon has formed over the southern tip of Florida near The Everglades this morning. Gordon is forecast to rapidly move northwest in the hours/days ahead. The system will bring heavy downpours of rain to portions of our area over the next 48-60 hours. While heavy rain and flash flooding are real concerns, I’m growing more confident that the overall impact in inland areas from Tropical Storm Gordon in our local area (south Alabama and northwest Florida) should be LOW. That’s not to say there won’t be a surprise or two in that there may be a few, fairly weak isolated tornadoes. Let’s look at the situation as it stands now and have a look at potential impacts… If you have questions after this short briefing, as always, feel free to shoot me a text message at (251) 363-8833.
GORDON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA NOW
Below is the latest graphic issued by the National Hurricane Center regarding the projected path for the center of circulation of Tropical Storm Gordon.
Maximum winds as of now are pegged at 45 miles per hour. These stronger winds are happening very near the center of Gordon, which is located just south of Marco Island, FL. This puts the center of Gordon emerging over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico from The Everglades right now. Gordon is about to RAPIDLY move northwest across the Gulf of Mexico, with landfall most likely happening on Tuesday evening along the Louisiana or Mississippi Gulf Coast as a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane. Whether it’s a “weak” hurricane or a strong tropical storm is something that the public generally gets caught up in, but honestly it’s somewhat of a moot point as impacts will be roughly the same whether max winds are at 65 or 80 mph. (74+ mph “qualifies” a system as a hurricane.)
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS
MORE IMPACTS AT THE COAST… Because of the “angle of attack” of the storm, moving southeast to northwest, it is reasonable to conclude that the greatest impacts in our local area will very likely happen in the southern halves of Mobile and Baldwin counties in southwest Alabama. That is what I’m considering as “Zone 1,” as MOST likely to see impacts. “Zone 2,” as SOMEWHAT likely to have impacts, would be areas in northwest Florida near the immediate coast, basically south of Interstate 10. “Zone 3,” for all areas north of Interstate 10 COULD have impacts, but impacts are less likely to happen there. If that is confusing, see the maps below as those will likely provide better context.
HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING THREAT… It’s really a blessing that this system will be moving so quickly, as rain amounts “won’t have time” to stack up compared to if Gordon was a slow-mover. The greatest rain amounts are likely in our local area near the Alabama beaches. Flash flooding is most likely to happen in Mobile and Baldwin counties, where a flash flood watch is in effect. Escambia County, Florida is also included in this flash flood watch. Heavy rain will happen intermittently inland, but I’m not expecting major flash flooding or flooding issues at this time for inland areas. Here is a look at the latest projected rainfall totals due to Gordon…
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE… The timeframe for when isolated tornadoes will be most likely to occur across our region will be Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. The isolated tornado threat will end as the center of Gordon moves well to our west. We’ve adjusted this impact potential map just a bit, based on the latest track guidance from NHC.
WIND IMPACTS UNLIKELY INLAND… At this point, significant wind impacts are NOT expected across inland areas of south Alabama or northwest Florida. Yes, there could be breezy conditions at times, but overall, the wind impacts should be confined to the immediate coastline.
STORM SURGE WARNING… NWS Mobile has opted to issue a Storm Surge Warning for the entirety of the Alabama coastline as there could be some minor storm surge (tides running 2-5′ above normal). A Storm Surge Watch is also in effect for the northwest Florida beaches.
OFFICIAL PRODUCTS… There is so much going on that all of these products can get confusing. Let’s break it down…
1) A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for the southern halves of Mobile and Baldwin counties.
2) A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties.
3) A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for coastal areas of Mobile and Baldwin counties.
4) A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for coastal areas of Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties.
5) A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Mobile, Baldwin, and Escambia [FL] counties.
6) There are no active watches or warnings in effect as of 11:15AM for Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Escambia [AL], Covington, or Butler counties.
I’ll be working on our public-facing products over the next 12 hours. Feel free to contact me at (251) 363-8833 if there is anything I can do to help you make weather-related decisions.
Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a nice Labor Day!