HIGH LEVEL ALERT
STRENGTHENING GORDON LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE… Tropical Storm Gordon is getting stronger and rapidly moving toward the northern Gulf Coast region. VERY long, detailed post with info for each county! The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for maximum sustained winds to peak near 75-80mph immediately before a likely landfall in southeast Mississippi or east Louisiana. Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the entirety of our local coastline in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Plenty of details to talk about this evening AND we’ve got a look at what you can expect in each of our local counties…
SPECIFIC COUNTIES: WHAT TO EXPECT…
MOBILE COUNTY… Since Mobile County will be our closest county (most likely) to the center of circulation of what could be Hurricane Gordon tomorrow evening, impacts are MOST likely there. Inland communities like Citronelle and Mount Vernon will have 2-4” of rain, while areas closer to the coast like Bayou La Batre, Coden, and Dauphin Island are likely to have 5 inches of rain or more. Winds at the coast in Mobile County could easily approach hurricane force, in excess of 74 miles per hour, particularly Tuesday evening as the core of Gordon moves by. The city of Mobile could have winds in the 30-50 miles per hour range, depending on the exact track of the system. Isolated tornadoes will become possible across Mobile County on Tuesday afternoon extending into Wednesday. A Hurricane Warning, Storm Surge Warning (for Dauphin Island), and Flash Flood Watch are all in effect for Mobile County.
BALDWIN COUNTY… There will be a steep gradient in likely impacts across Baldwin County. If you’re in Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, or Fort Morgan, you have the highest risk of experiencing high winds (60-70 mph gusts) as the core of Gordon moves by on Tuesday evening. Some spots near the beaches like Gulf Shores, Foley, Magnolia Springs, and Lillian may have 3-5” of rain, while areas near Rabun, Bay Minette, Stockton, and Tensaw might not have 2” of rain in total. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes will be possible across Baldwin County, including areas near Daphne, Fairhope, Montrose, Spanish Fort, Bromley, Silverhill, Loxley, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Elberta, Gateswood, and Perdido.
ESCAMBIA [FL], SANTA ROSA, OKALOOSA, WALTON COUNTIES… Northwest Florida will have a gradient in place in terms of likely impacts, similar to the Alabama coastal counties. Gusty winds (40-60 mph) will be possible in coastal communities like Pensacola, Destin, Navarre, Pensacola Beach, Gulf Breeze, Opal Beach, Mary Esther, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seaside, and Santa Rosa Beach. Very heavy rain is likely at times with rain amounts of 2-4” being possible. The threat of isolated tornadoes will likely begin in northwest Florida earlier compared to other parts of our region as Gordon approaches. Be ready anytime after the noon hour on Tuesday for potential tornado warnings! Inland areas like Walnut Hill, Bratt, Jay, Century, Molino, Chumuckla, Brownsdale, Mt. Carmel, Berrydale, Munson, Baker, Milligan, Campton, Laurel Hill, and Crestview should expect breezy conditions at times, but the overall high wind impacts will be felt at the immediate beaches and not inland. Isolated tornadoes will be possible in inland communities. A Tropical Storm Warning continues for northwest Florida from the AL/FL border eastward to Destin.
WASHINGTON, CLARKE, CHOCTAW, MARENGO COUNTIES… A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Washington County where rain amounts could be 2-4” in total. Overall, the wind impacts in Washington and Clarke counties should be low. Isolated tornadoes will be possible Tuesday evening into Wednesday in these west Alabama counties. Overall, the greater risks will happen near the coast.
MONROE, ESCAMBIA [AL], CONECUH, BUTLER, COVINGTON, CRENSHAW COUNTIES… Heavy rain will happen intermittently Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. There is a lower end risk of isolated tornadoes in these counties, but the risk definitely is not zero. Rain amounts will be much less in these counties, generally varying between one half inch up to 2” of rain.
WIREGRASS/SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… If you’re in Dothan, Enterprise, Geneva, Elba, Troy, Eufaula, Abbeville, or surrounding areas in the Wiregrass region, there will be heavy rain at times over the next few days. There is a very low risk of an isolated tornado in these areas. Wind impacts will be very low as the core of Gordon will be over 100 miles away from these locations.
IMPACTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON… The first outer rain bands of Gordon could move into our local area by Tuesday afternoon, but more likely will happen in the early evening (4PM-6PM) timeframe. Rain bands will progressively spread inland and westward throughout the day. There is a high rain chance for everyone across our region (south Alabama and northwest Florida) by 8PM on Tuesday. We’ll need to monitor these outer rain bands as the chance of a brief, isolated tornado will increase throughout the day.
ISOLATED TORNADO RISK… The Storm Prediction Center has opted to include the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) “marginal” risk. These likely will NOT be long-track, violent tornadoes, but rather the typical “weaker” tornadoes that accompany the outer rain bands of a tropical storm or hurricane. It really doesn’t matter how strong a tornado is in that if it affects YOU, it’s a big deal. Per our usual policy (outlined extensively here: redzoneweather.com/coverage), we will live stream uninterrupted video coverage for any tornado warning polygon that happens in our 12 county Primary Coverage Area. Don’t be surprised to a see a tornado watch issued on Tuesday. I can just about guarantee that will happen in our area or perhaps just to our west.
FLASH FLOODING & HEAVY RAIN… The guidance on this has not changed. 3 to 5 inches of rain is not out of the question for coastal communities, particularly in Mobile and Baldwin counties. Rain amounts will be substantially LESS for inland communities, as in 1-2” of rain most likely. Please do not drive over any water-covered roadways you encounter! So many deaths occur this way across our nation. “Turn around, don’t drown.”
WIND IMPACTS NEAR COAST… 40-60 mph wind gusts will be possible near the immediate coastline, particularly the Alabama beaches. Wind gusts of 30-50 mph are possible at northwest Florida beaches. Based on the latest data, the forecast continues to call for very little to no high wind-related impacts for inland communities.
TIMING OF IMPACTS… The timeframe of potential impacts for south Alabama and northwest Florida starts at 10AM on Tuesday. That is, at this point, the earliest reasonable time that outer rain bands could move in. Impacts will last potentially until Wednesday afternoon around 4PM. The core window for potential impacts locally will happen from 8PM Tuesday to 10AM on Wednesday.
Impacts Possible: 10AM Tuesday to 4PM Wednesday
Impacts MOST Likely: 8PM Tuesday Evening to 10AM Wednesday Morning
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NEXT VIDEO: 7:15AM… I’ll have a few more updates this evening in the RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download). My next forecast video will be up by 7:15AM on Tuesday. Let me know if you have any questions!