TROPICAL STORM GORDON APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST… Tropical Storm Gordon continues to rapidly move northwest across the Gulf of Mexico. Landfall in southeast Mississippi or east Louisiana will likely happen late this evening. Impacts from Gordon may begin across our local area as early as late morning, but are more likely to begin this afternoon into this evening and last through Wednesday morning. Gordon may become a hurricane before landfall, but if it does or doesn’t, impacts will still be felt across the Deep South. This is a long post with a LOT of review information from the video last evening as the forecast remains on target…
GORDON COULD BECOME HURRICANE TODAY… The official guidance from the National Hurricane Center continues to call for a category 1 hurricane at the time of landfall late this evening in Mississippi or Louisiana. The first outer rain bands from Gordon could begin spreading across south Alabama and northwest Florida over the next few hours. This means that the isolated tornado threat is set to begin later this morning potentially. Hurricane Warnings remain in effect for the entirety of the Alabama coastline, including Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Fort Morgan, Dauphin Island, and all of Mobile and Baldwin counties. Tropical Storm Warnings continue for all of Escambia [FL] County and coastal areas of Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties in northwest Florida.
TORNADOES POSSIBLE TODAY… The Storm Prediction Center includes the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) “marginal” risk valid today through 6AM on Wednesday. These likely will NOT be long-track, violent tornadoes, but rather the typical “weaker” tornadoes that accompany the outer rain bands of a tropical storm or hurricane. It really doesn’t matter how strong a tornado is in that if it affects YOU, it’s a big deal. Per our usual policy (outlined extensively here), we will live stream uninterrupted video coverage for any tornado warning polygon that happens in our 12 county Primary Coverage Area. Don’t be surprised to a see a tornado watch issued for our area later today. I can just about guarantee that will happen in our area or perhaps just to our west.
HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES TODAY… Heavy rain is likely to increase in coverage across the region as the day progresses. 3 to 5 inches of rain is not out of the question for coastal communities, particularly in Mobile and Baldwin counties. Rain amounts will be substantially LESS for inland communities, as in 1-2” of rain most likely.
HIGH WIND NEAR COASTLINE… 50-70 mph wind gusts will be possible near the immediate coastline, particularly the Alabama beaches. Wind gusts of 30-60 mph are possible at northwest Florida beaches. Based on the latest data, the forecast continues to call for very little to no high wind-related impacts for inland communities.
TIMING OF IMPACTS… The timeframe of potential impacts for south Alabama and northwest Florida starts over the next few hours. Impacts will last potentially until Wednesday afternoon around 4PM. The core window for potential impacts locally will happen from 8PM tonight to 10AM on Wednesday.
Impacts Possible: 10AM Tuesday to 4PM Wednesday
Impacts MOST Likely: 8PM Tuesday Evening to 10AM Wednesday Morning
TORNADO WARNING REMINDER… Anytime we have a tornado warning issued for any part of south Alabama or northwest Florida (redzoneweather.com/coverage for more definition), we live stream video coverage here on Facebook. We’ll aim to do that today in addition to live streaming radar coverage in the RedZone Weather app.
APP & ALERTS… We want you to be able to get customized weather alerts from RedZone Weather. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner in the RZWeather app) then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive straight from me. No automated alerts! They’re all handcrafted by me.
The following specifics for our local counties has not changed.
SPECIFIC COUNTIES: WHAT TO EXPECT…
MOBILE COUNTY… Since Mobile County will be our closest county (most likely) to the center of circulation of what could be Hurricane Gordon tomorrow evening, impacts are MOST likely there. Inland communities like Citronelle and Mount Vernon will have 2-4” of rain, while areas closer to the coast like Bayou La Batre, Coden, and Dauphin Island are likely to have 5 inches of rain or more. Winds at the coast in Mobile County could easily approach hurricane force, in excess of 74 miles per hour, particularly Tuesday evening as the core of Gordon moves by. The city of Mobile could have winds in the 30-50 miles per hour range, depending on the exact track of the system. Isolated tornadoes will become possible across Mobile County this (Tuesday) afternoon extending into Wednesday. A Hurricane Warning, Storm Surge Warning (for Dauphin Island), and Flash Flood Watch are all in effect for Mobile County.
BALDWIN COUNTY… There will be a steep gradient in likely impacts across Baldwin County. If you’re in Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, or Fort Morgan, you have the highest risk of experiencing high winds (60-70 mph gusts) as the core of Gordon moves by this (Tuesday) evening. Some spots near the beaches like Gulf Shores, Foley, Magnolia Springs, and Lillian may have 3-5” of rain, while areas near Rabun, Bay Minette, Stockton, and Tensaw might not have 2” of rain in total. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes will be possible across Baldwin County, including areas near Daphne, Fairhope, Montrose, Spanish Fort, Bromley, Silverhill, Loxley, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Elberta, Gateswood, and Perdido.
ESCAMBIA [FL], SANTA ROSA, OKALOOSA, WALTON COUNTIES… Northwest Florida will have a gradient in place in terms of likely impacts, similar to the Alabama coastal counties. Gusty winds (40-60 mph) will be possible in coastal communities like Pensacola, Destin, Navarre, Pensacola Beach, Gulf Breeze, Opal Beach, Mary Esther, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seaside, and Santa Rosa Beach. Very heavy rain is likely at times with rain amounts of 2-4” being possible. The threat of isolated tornadoes will likely begin in northwest Florida earlier compared to other parts of our region as Gordon approaches. Be ready anytime after the noon hour on Tuesday for potential tornado warnings! Inland areas like Walnut Hill, Bratt, Jay, Century, Molino, Chumuckla, Brownsdale, Mt. Carmel, Berrydale, Munson, Baker, Milligan, Campton, Laurel Hill, and Crestview should expect breezy conditions at times, but the overall high wind impacts will be felt at the immediate beaches and not inland. Isolated tornadoes will be possible in inland communities. A Tropical Storm Warning continues for northwest Florida from the AL/FL border eastward to Destin.
WASHINGTON, CLARKE, CHOCTAW, MARENGO, WILCOX COUNTIES… A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Washington County where rain amounts could be 2-4” in total. Overall, the wind impacts in Washington and Clarke counties should be low. Isolated tornadoes will be possible this (Tuesday) evening into Wednesday in these west Alabama counties. Overall, the greater risks will happen near the coast.
MONROE, ESCAMBIA [AL], CONECUH, BUTLER, COVINGTON, CRENSHAW COUNTIES… Heavy rain will happen intermittently starting this (Tuesday) afternoon through Wednesday. There is a lower end risk of isolated tornadoes in these counties, but the risk definitely is not zero. Rain amounts will be much less in these counties, generally varying between one half inch up to 2” of rain.
WIREGRASS/SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… If you’re in Dothan, Enterprise, Geneva, Elba, Troy, Eufaula, Abbeville, or surrounding areas in the Wiregrass region, there will be heavy rain at times over the next few days. There is a very low risk of an isolated tornado in these areas. Wind impacts will be very low as the core of Gordon will be over 100 miles away from these locations.
Let me know if you have specific questions. Have a great Tuesday and join me as we continue to monitor Tropical Storm Gordon…