Good Tuesday morning, RZW Exec partners! Tropical Storm Gordon continues to move northwest across the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Impacts have already started at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches as the first outer rain bands are moving in. Heavy rain is falling near Perdido Key, Gulf Shores, and Orange Beach at the time this update is being typed around 10:15AM. This is a highly detailed post with information about what you can expect in each of our respective local counties. IMPORTANT: This will be the final RZW Exec update, as my focus at this point is shifting to our public products. You can always view the latest info from me in the Latest tab (bottom left corner here in the RZWeather app). It serves as a “tap to refresh” button for the homepage of the app.
GORDON IN THE GULF NOW
Below is the latest graphic issued by the National Hurricane Center regarding the projected path for the center of circulation of Tropical Storm Gordon. This is the latest 10AM CDT advisory graphic…
Maximum winds as of now are pegged at 65 miles per hour. The center of Gordon is expected to make landfall sometime this evening into the wee hours of Wednesday morning as a category 1 hurricane. This is good news as the weakening trend at that point will commence. Impacts from Gordon will start across our area shortly and last well into Wednesday, long after the center passes. This is because our area will be on the volatile eastern flank of the center of circulation.
GORDON – LOCAL IMPACTS
MORE IMPACTS AT THE COAST… This is a repeat from yesterday’s discussion but it is still 100% accurate: Because of the “angle of attack” of the storm, moving southeast to northwest, it is reasonable to conclude that the greatest impacts in our local area will very likely happen in the southern halves of Mobile and Baldwin counties in southwest Alabama. That is what I’m considering as “Zone 1,” as MOST likely to see impacts. “Zone 2,” as SOMEWHAT likely to have impacts, would be areas in northwest Florida near the immediate coast, basically south of Interstate 10. “Zone 3,” for all areas north of Interstate 10 COULD have impacts, but impacts are less likely to happen there. If that is confusing, see the maps below as those will likely provide better context.
HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING THREAT… Rain amounts due to Gordon are likely to be just a touch higher than previously indicated. We note the Weather Prediction Center has adjusted their projected totals of 3-4″ of rain to include more parts of Escambia [FL] and Santa Rosa counties. Rain amounts have also slightly been increased for areas near Chatom, Wagerville, Uriah, Atmore, and Flomaton. This is in response to the big area of convection that has fired on the northern side of Gordon, likely to bring more rain earlier than anticipated starting this afternoon. Overall, the flash flooding threat will continue to be greatest in Mobile, Baldwin, and Escambia [FL] counties, especially near the immediate coastline.
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE… Now that we have rain bands from Gordon moving in, isolated tornadoes will be possible imminently. The threat will be mainly at the coastline over the next few hours (waterspouts that briefly move inland, triggering a tornado warning). The tornado risk will gradually spread inland throughout the day as more rain bands move in. These will NOT be long-track, violent tornadoes that are more common in the spring months. These will be “weak,” spin-up tornadoes that last only a few minutes. It really doesn’t matter that much though, because if a tornado affects YOU, it’s a big deal. Be ready to move to shelter in case of one of these spin-up tornadoes. Our tornado warning policy is outlined here, and it certainly will apply today! Below is the latest convective outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center… Levels 1 and 2 risk are in place for the entirety of our local area due to the increasing tornado threat. Note that the Level 2 risk is in place for coastal areas where tornadoes are more likely to happen…
WIND IMPACTS UNLIKELY INLAND… Significant wind impacts are still NOT expected across inland areas of south Alabama or northwest Florida. Yes, there could be breezy conditions at times, but overall, the wind impacts should be confined to the immediate coastline. This has not changed. Gusty winds will happen closer to the coastline this afternoon. The greatest chance of stronger winds will happen this evening from 6PM to 3AM on Wednesday morning at the Alabama beaches and Dauphin Island, where the core of Gordon will pass very near tonight.
STORM SURGE WARNING… A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for Dauphin Island as there could be some minor to moderate storm surge (tides running 3-6′ above normal). A Storm Surge Watch is also in effect from Dauphin Island eastward to Navarre, FL.
OFFICIAL PRODUCTS… Again, plenty of official products in place by the National Weather Service. Here are those products…
1) A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southern halves of Mobile and Baldwin counties. This is more of a cautionary thing, as hurricane force winds are possible near the beaches and perhaps near Bayou La Batre and Coden in southern Mobile County. I would suggest that tropical storm force winds are definitely more likely, but the hurricane force wind gusts should be confined to the immediate coastline.
2) A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Escambia [FL] County, coastal areas of Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties, in addition to the northern halves of Mobile and Baldwin counties. Again, tropical storm force winds will be possible within 5 miles or so of the coastline, but that’s about it. Inland areas will be spared, most likely.
3) A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for coastal areas of Mobile County.
4) A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for coastal areas of Baldwin, Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties.
5) A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Washington, Escambia [AL], Mobile, Baldwin, Santa Rosa, and Escambia [FL] counties.
6) There are no active watches or warnings in effect as of 10:45AM for Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Covington, or Butler counties.
I’ll be working on our public-facing products over the next 24-36 hours. Feel free to text me at (251) 363-8833 if there is anything I can do to help you make weather-related decisions. I might be slower to reply now that the storm is moving in, but I’ll do my best to get back to you promptly.
Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a nice week and again, please join me in our public-facing products throughout the day!