THREE HURRICANES IN ATLANTIC; DANGEROUS FLORENCE AIMS AT CAROLINAS… The Atlantic hurricane basin is just about as active as it ever gets with three hurricanes and two more areas of concern on this Monday. Hurricane Florence is a rapidly strengthening hurricane this morning with maximum winds around 90 mph. We’re also monitoring Hurricane Isaac and Hurricane Helene in addition to a tropical wave that will move into the western Gulf and may develop into a tropical storm by the end of the week. Locally, I expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to pop up throughout the day and over the next few days. Let’s talk details…
FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING… Hurricane Florence is up to a category 2 hurricane this morning, with maximum sustained winds near 90 mph. Florence is expected to rapidly strengthen into a dangerous major hurricane over the next 24 hours. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for a strong category 4 hurricane in the next 72 hours as the system barrels toward the North Carolina coast. Florence is entering an area of warmer sea surface temperatures and less environmental shear, which should allow the system to be (unfortunately) a major hurricane as it approaches a potential landfall on Thursday.
FLORENCE – EXTREME INTENSITY… Regardless of if Hurricane Florence is a category 3, 4, or 5 at landfall, impacts will be felt across a large swath of land, probably from southern Virginia southward into South Carolina. This area of the U.S. East Coast has not experienced a major hurricane landfall in quite some time. Residents from Savannah, Georgia northward to Norfolk, Virginia should closely and diligently monitor the progress of Florence. Right now, the core of the impacts are most likely to happen between Charleston, SC northward to Cape Hatteras, NC. This is subject to change, as we’re still 4 days out from a potential landfall. Impacts because of Florence are not expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida.
TROPICAL WAVE IN CARIBBEAN… Heavy rain is happening across much of the western Caribbean Sea this morning as a tropical wave moves northwest toward the western Gulf of Mexico this week. NHC says there is a 30% chance of tropical storm formation over the next few days as this system continues moving northwest. Early model guidance has consistently pointed to this being a system that will affect Texas and perhaps far western Louisiana. We’ll have to monitor this tropical wave carefully, but at the moment, local impacts seem unlikely in south Alabama and northwest Florida. We’ll keep you posted.
ISAAC NOW A HURRICANE… Hurricane Isaac has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. Isaac is overall a small, compact hurricane at the moment. The system will move west in the days ahead and bring heavy rain and strong wind to the Leeward Islands/Antilles beginning on Wednesday night. There continues to be significant model disagreement in the medium-term with this system, meaning it’s truly anyone’s guess as to where the system will ultimately end up in the Caribbean OR how strong it will be. The best guidance, for now (from NHC), points to a strong tropical storm passing in between Hispaniola and South America by Friday. It’s still unknown whether Gulf Coast impacts will be possible due to Isaac, but obviously that means the system must be monitored carefully in the days ahead.
HURRICANE HELENE FAR AWAY… Helene also strengthened into a hurricane on Sunday. The system has max winds of 85 mph. Helene is expected to take a right, due north turn over the next few days and stay far away from any land areas over the next week as it drifts north.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN ATLANTIC… NHC says there’s a 40-50% chance that yet another tropical storm may form in the open waters of the Atlantic well east of Bermuda in the days ahead. The system will likely lift northeastward very quickly and stay far away from land.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY… Numerous thunderstorms are expected to pop up across south Alabama and northwest Florida this afternoon into this evening. Severe weather is not expected. Storms will produce lots of lightning and heavy rain across our region. Be ready for scattered downpours of heavy rain today.
VIDEO NOTE… No morning video on this Monday. Today is a really difficult day for me, for my community, and for friends that I love very dearly. We unexpectedly lost a great friend (Curtis Glaize) who grew up with us here in Brewton. I know his family and all of his many friends would covet and appreciate your prayers in the days ahead. Thank you.