Good Monday morning, RZW Exec partners! We’re tracking 5 (yes, 5) tropical systems in the Atlantic basin today. Let me say upfront that while we have several systems in the tropics, at the moment, there are no tropical-related threats for south Alabama and northwest Florida. A tropical wave will come fairly close to our area later this week when it likely moves into Texas. Hurricane Florence will likely bring catastrophic impacts to parts of North Carolina and South Carolina in the days ahead. I’ve got an update for you on that system below if you have folks on the ground there or assets in the area. Please also see my personal note at the conclusion of this post.
BROAD OVERVIEW
Hurricanes Florence, Isaac, and Helene are active in the Atlantic, spaced between the U.S. and Africa. We’re also watching a tropical wave currently producing heavy rain over the western Caribbean Sea that will move into the western Gulf of Mexico in the days ahead. Another tropical disturbance is developing well east of Bermuda and won’t affect land over the next few days. Here is the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) showing all of this… 
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING NORTHWEST
An area of clouds and storms is currently situated in the western Caribbean Sea near the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico/Belize). This is a tropical wave at the moment. NHC suggests there is an increasing risk (40% chance at the moment) of tropical storm formation as this system continues slowly moving northwest. While it’s important to forecast all of these systems with multiple models, the ECMWF (Euro) model continues to perform well this hurricane season. The Euro has a tropical storm moving into Texas, perhaps just south of Houston/Galveston, on Thursday into Friday. 
Impacts from this tropical wave seem UNLIKELY as of now for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Above is a look at the Euro output valid on Friday, September 15 at 7PM.
DANGEROUS FLORENCE NOW A CAT. 4
Latest #Florence view… Strengthening is not over. BE READY if you’re in North Carolina or South Carolina. The potential impacts of this storm cannot be overstated: High (150+ mph) winds near the eyewall, 1-2 FEET of rain perhaps, inland flooding, massive surge, tornadoes. pic.twitter.com/q9iaugOnjs
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) September 10, 2018
It cannot be overstated that potentially catastrophic impacts will be possible along the South Carolina and North Carolina coast where Hurricane Florence ultimately makes landfall. Just in as of the latest 11AM advisory, Florence is now a category 4 hurricane with maximum winds at 130 mph. Unfortunately, due to warmer sea surface temperatures and relaxing wind shear high in the atmosphere, Florence is entering an even more favorable environment for further strengthening. The system very well could become a category 5 hurricane tonight or on Tuesday as rapid strengthening continues. Everyone with interests in southern Virginia, the entirety of North Carolina and South Carolina, and western Georgia should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Florence. Folks near Hilton Head Island (SC), Charleston (SC), Myrtle Beach (SC), Wilmington (NC), Jacksonville (NC), and Morehead City (NC) are now in a significant risk zone where hurricane impacts will be possible. Direct impacts from Hurricane Florence are not expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida. Note in the graphic below how in the 3-5 day forecast timeframe that the system slows its forward speed drastically, meaning a potentially MAJOR flood threat will set up across the Carolinas due to all of the heavy rain.
I am very concerned for our friends in the Carolinas! If you have interests there, please let them know how serious of a situation this is.
HURRICANE ISAAC MOVING WEST
Hurricane Isaac is located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the African continent. Maximum winds are at 75 mph. Note that out of all the systems we’re currently watching, the forecast confidence with Isaac remains the lowest. This is due to significant model divergence in the 4-5 day forecast timeframe. NHC calls for Isaac to maintain its strength as it approaches the Leeward Islands before weakening to a tropical storm as environmental shear increases over the Caribbean. I am not comfortable saying this publicly yet, but I am encouraged that most of the major global models show Isaac dissipating over the central Caribbean in 5-6 days as shear increases. Again, lots of uncertainty, but we’ll keep watching. Anytime there is a storm in this corridor of the Atlantic that has any type of potential of moving into the Gulf of Mexico, we must monitor diligently! 
HURRICANE HELENE STAYS AWAY
Hurricane Helene is in the far eastern Atlantic closer to Africa than North America. The system will likely continue moving west-northwest over the next 24 hours before making a sharp, right northerly turn in about 3 days. All major global models point to Helene staying away from land over the next 7 days with dissipation happening in about 8-9 days. Obviously local impacts won’t happen if this is the case. Good news! 
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN ATLANTIC
Yet another tropical storm could form in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean well east of Bermuda in the days ahead. All models point to this system moving east, away from the continental United States. We’ll watch it, but local impacts are not expected.
LOCAL FORECAST
After discussing five tropical systems that will have varying levels of impact in the United States, where does that leave south Alabama and northwest Florida? In a seasonal mid-September weather pattern, of course! Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in each of the next 7 days with high temperatures near 90° and morning lows in the 70s. Severe weather is not expected over the next week, although these pop-up storms can certainly be on the strong side at times with very heavy rain and lots of lightning.
PERSONAL NOTE
There was no morning video on this Monday. I posted a graphic (here) with a long text discussion instead. Today is a really difficult day for me, for my community, and for friends that I love very dearly. We unexpectedly lost a great friend (Curtis Glaize) who grew up with us here in Brewton. My heart breaks today for the Glaize family, Curtis’s fiancée, and all of my many friends who are grieving the loss of such a joyful, fun person. I know his family and all of his many friends would covet and appreciate your prayers in the days ahead. Thank you.
Let me know if you have questions, concerns, or comments. Have a nice Monday evening.