10:16PM April 21, 2018

LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON SUNDAY… Most of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida will have showers and general thunderstorms on Sunday, but a few of the storms could be on the stronger side. The tornado risk is LOW, but it’s not zero, meaning an isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out. Grab the umbrella/rain jacket before you head out the door on Sunday morning, as showers could form across our area before noon. Higher rain chances happen later in the day, however.

SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT & SUNDAY MORNING… Here is a look at the 3km North American Model (one idea, won’t happen JUST like this) valid at 8AM on Sunday, showing isolated showers around our area with heavier rain on the way from the west. If you’re headed out to morning church services or another Sunday morning event, I would have the rain gear close by. (More discussion below)

RAIN & STORMS LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING… The afternoon and evening hours look quite wet on Sunday. Again, a low-end, “marginal” severe weather risk is in place for all of our area. This is the Level 1 (out of 5) low-end risk on the Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook valid for Sunday. “Level 1” does not mean that the risk is zero, it means that MOST of us won’t have severe weather, but a few isolated spots could have a stronger storm. Rain chances will be highest from 2PM to 8PM across our area. I would definitely have an indoor backup plan if you have outdoor plans during that time. Here is the 3km NAM (model view, one idea) valid at 1PM on Sunday. Notice the many storms around. They won’t happen in those exact spots depicted on this image, but there will almost certainly be showers and storms around.

NEXT UPDATE BY 10AM… We should have no major weather issues through late morning in south Alabama or northwest Florida. A few showers, maybe, but nothing severe is likely until after 10AM. If tornado warnings happen to be required (at *any* time), we will be providing our usual streaming coverage across our platforms.

Have a nice overnight! See you in the A.M.

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