MAJOR SHIFT EAST IN ALBERTO PROJECTED PATH… The National Hurricane Center has adjusted the “cone of uncertainty” for Subtropical Storm Alberto much farther to the east overnight. If this new projected path verifies (and that’s a big if at this point since more track adjustments are possible before landfall), this would put much of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida on the west side of the center of Alberto, which would mean local impacts would be reduced. IMPORTANT: Projected paths with tropical storms are prone to change. There could be more track refinements that place our area back into the core risk area. Don’t let your guard down until the center of this storm has passed our area by Tuesday!
FLOODING RISK HIGHEST EAST OF I-65… You can see in the image attached that the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast has much of the highest rain amounts now in southeast Alabama & the Wiregrass region along with the Florida Panhandle. This latest track guidance means that much of our area to the WEST of I-65 would have 2-5″ of rain with areas EAST of I-65 picking up 4-8″ of rain. There, inevitably, will be a few surprise higher totals along the way, but overall, if this new track projection verifies, it’s good news for our area as the flooding potential would be substantially reduced! This has been the number one concern for days. There still could be track adjustments, but overall, this is good news for now.
LOWER TORNADO RISK… IF this new projected path verifies, vast majority of our area will have very little in the way of a tornado risk. There still is a low-end, (not zero!) risk for tornadoes across Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Escambia (FL), Covington, Butler, and Escambia (AL), but the risk has lowered since the center will likely be east of our area. If track adjustments happen, there’s a chance the tornado risk could increase again, especially for communities on the eastern side of our region. We’re not entirely “out of the woods” just yet, but the risk has lowered slightly.
HIGH WIND RISK TO THE EAST… A Tropical Storm Warning continues for the entirety of the Alabama coastline and all of the Florida Gulf coastline from the AL/FL border, all the way down to Bonita Beach way down in the Florida Peninsula. Gusty (20-40 mph gusts) winds are likely at our local beach areas, but again, the core of the high wind (50-60 mph gusts) would happen over the Florida Panhandle, based on the latest track projections.
GREATER IMPACTS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA & FLORIDA PANHANDLE… What is overall great news for southwest Alabama and northwest Florida is bad news for our friends in the Wiregrass/southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. There will be an increased risk of flash flooding, isolated tornadoes, and gusty winds for places like Port Saint Joe, Mexico Beach, Apalachicola, Marianna, Panama City, and Dothan.
NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET… Again, more track refinements are possible over the next 24 hours as Alberto approaches. The news is GOOD for our region this morning, but we must remain “on guard” until this system has passed our area and no longer poses a threat.
APP… Join me here in the RedZone Weather app as we track Subtropical Storm Alberto today and tomorrow until the center moves by our area. I’ll have another detailed update later today, with plenty more updates here in the RedZone Weather app this morning. See you then!