POP-UP STORMS LATER TODAY; TROPICS UPDATE… Several pulse, pop-up thunderstorms will likely happen this afternoon and this evening across south Alabama and northwest Florida. High temps will again be near 94-95 in most spots. There’s a low-end chance that a tropical storm could develop in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico in the middle part of the upcoming week. Still plenty of uncertainty, but let’s talk through what we do know.
TROPICAL MISCHIEF POSSIBLE MIDWEEK… Unfortunately, details are still sparse as to what to expect with a potential tropical storm next week. Model guidance has been (quite literally) all over the board as to IF a tropical storm will develop or WHERE it will end up. I say this to say: This is a LOW confidence forecast with high amount of uncertainty and variability. Details will come into better focus likely Sunday into Monday. For now, what we know is several models, including the American GFS (Global Forecast System), point to a developing tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico between Wednesday and Friday of the upcoming week. There is a chance this system will be nothing more than tropical moisture, but there’s also a chance that it could ramp up to a tropical storm. I would advise all Gulf Coast residents to keep an eye on this system early next week.
No one, and I mean NO ONE, knows where this system will end up or if it will even develop. If you see anyone (including what often are reputible sources) posting ONE model image and suggesting an outcome, I would take it with a huge dose of skepticism. We use models to make a forecast. They’re not intended to be taken at face value, even though many on the Internet choose to plaster them front-and-center to get attention.
There’s no need for panic or stress. This is a low-end potential that just warrants watching, for now. I’ll have plenty of updates this weekend in the RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download).
HOT DAYS & P.M. STORMS AHEAD… This weekend will feature sunshine, cumulus clouds, and an increasing chance of pop-up storms in the afternoon and evening hours. Storms will produce heavy downpours of rain, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, and gusty winds. Widespread severe weather is not expected. High temperatures will be in the 90s with morning lows around 70 over the next few days.
See all the graphics and details in your Friday #rzw forecast video here.
Let me know if you have weather questions. Have a nice weekend!