12:25PM August 12, 2018

FEW STORMS TODAY; NUMEROUS STORMS THIS WEEK… Isolated thunderstorms will pop up this afternoon across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Temperatures are above 90° in most spots across our region. The “dog days of summer” continue in full force this week as hot temperatures and scattered storms remain in the forecast. We continue to monitor two areas of low pressure in the tropics that currently remain very weak and unlikely to develop. Let’s talk details…

SLIGHTLY LOWER (NOT ZERO) RAIN CHANCES TODAY… There were a few showers and thunderstorms around on Saturday, but vast majority of us across the region remained dry. Today should be a carbon copy of that with isolated thunderstorms around. Most of us should remain dry. High temperatures will end up around 94-95° for most spots. If your location happens to be under one of the heavy downpours of rain, it shouldn’t last more than 1-2 hours. Storms today should fade pretty quickly after sunset.

STALLED FRONT TO CAUSE MORE STORMS THIS WEEK… Rain chances rise to 50-60% for Monday through Wednesday. A stalled frontal boundary in the northern Gulf combined with a few shortwave impulses passing by in the atmosphere will lead to scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday afternoons. This last Friday is a good example of a comparison day when many of us had rain and some of us had multiple hours of strong storms. There could be a few stronger storms Monday through Wednesday with the main concern being damaging wind gusts. High temperatures over the next 5-7 days will consistently be around 90° with morning lows around 73°.

NOTE ABOUT TORNADO RISK… The tornado risk this week remains at basically zero this week, which is usually the case throughout the summer months around here. Tornadoes need upper support to form, and generally in the summertime, we have pulse-type thunderstorms that rapidly fire up and rapidly fade. The pulse-type storms are generally not associated with a cold front or other larger scale feature. Tornado season happens locally in November, December, March, and April. Obviously, tornadoes happen outside of those months as well, but those are generally the months that feature the most tornadoes locally. Lots of scud clouds, lots of storms capable of producing potentially damaging wind gusts, but not very many tornadoes in the summer months! (Obviously the exception to this rule is if we have a tropical storm/hurricane.)

TROPICS BASICALLY QUIET… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has two areas outlined for potential tropical storm formation over the next five days.

1) A weak area of low pressure located between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. “Significant development of this system now appears unlikely, due to unfavorable environmental conditions, while it moves slowly westward during the next couple of days.” NHC has development odds at a 10% chance.

2) A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
central Atlantic in a couple of days. The low could gradually
acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while it
meanders through the middle of next week. This system will not affect land. 20% chance of development way out in the middle of the Atlantic.

See all the forecast details in your Sunday #rzw forecast video that will be posted on Facebook by 1:30PM… Have a great evening!

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