6:55AM October 23, 2018

FEW SHOWERS TODAY; STORMS LIKELY THURSDAY… Mostly cloudy skies are expected across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Tuesday. We note a few showers have already happened across the region this morning and more are expected. High temperatures will peak near or just above the 70 degree mark. We’re watching our next weathermaker that could produce a few isolated tornadoes near coastal areas Thursday into Thursday night. After the storms on Thursday, better weather is ahead. Let’s talk details…

FALL LIKE DAY TODAY & ON WEDNESDAY… While there could be a few showers around the region today, no significant weather impacts are expected. Highs today will be near 71, with high temperatures increasing to the mid- to upper-70s on Wednesday.

ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE THURSDAY… There is an increasing, but still low-end, chance that we could see a few isolated, brief tornadoes on Thursday across coastal stretches of Alabama and northwest Florida. Thursday will be quite wet across the region as an area of low pressure moves near our coastline or just to the south. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty as to where this surface low will track. The specific track of the area of low pressure will determine whether the tornado risk will materialize. Some models keep the center of the low offshore, which would bode MUCH better for our area and eliminate the severe weather risk. Other models show the area of low pressure tracking farther inland, meaning areas south of the accompanying warm front would be in a zone where tornadoes would be possible.

PLACEMENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL… This has not changed since last evening: The low-end tornado risk will almost certainly be in coastal counties (Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa). The low-end risk for flash flooding will be areawide, including inland areas. Heavy rain will be possible across our region on Thursday. Rain amounts will vary from 1 inch up to 3-4″ in isolated spots.

TIMELINE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS… Rain and general thunderstorms are possible as early as 1AM Thursday. The severe weather risk could kick off as early as 7AM and extend well into Thursday evening. The 12 hour window for severe weather has shifted to be a little later: 10AM Thursday to 10PM Thursday. Rain and storms will move out late Thursday night into early Friday. Clearing skies are expected starting midday on Friday.

UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST… There will be changes and updates in the days ahead as this potential severe weather event sets up. Be sure to check back with me over the next few days here on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app for the very latest. We will keep you posted.

NICE WEEKEND AFTER THE STORMS… Plenty of sunshine is expected late in the day on Friday into Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures will be seasonal with highs near 70 and morning lows near or just below 50. GORGEOUS weekend ahead!

Be sure to check out the video for all the graphics and details. The video will be available shortly in the RZWeather app. Have a great Tuesday!

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