INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY… Strong to severe thunderstorms associated with an intense squall line will move across south Alabama and northwest Florida from west to east during the daytime hours of Thursday. The chance of severe weather, particularly damaging straight line winds and isolated tornadoes, has increased somewhat compared to last evening. The Storm Prediction Center has included ALL of the southern half of Alabama, northwest Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southeast Mississippi in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone. This means that scattered instances of severe storms capable of knocking down a few trees will be possible.
DRY HALLOWEEN NIGHT… The squall line will be setting up well to our west near the Mississippi River on Wednesday evening. This means that vast majority of us will be DRY for Halloween evening, which is great news for trick-or-treaters! Temperatures will be mild, in the 70s tomorrow night. The severe weather potential starts Thursday morning…
STORMS OUT AHEAD OF MAIN LINE… There’s also some concern this evening that an isolated supercell thunderstorm or two may develop out ahead of the main line of storms. This would mean a potentially higher tornado risk IF the storms out ahead of the line materialize. We won’t know if that will be the case for sure until Thursday morning when the system is just to our west in southern Mississippi. Regardless of this, damaging straight line winds and isolated embedded tornadoes will be possible in the main squall line of storms that moves through.
TIMING OF THE STORMS… The severe weather risk could begin as early as 7AM over west Alabama and could extend to 7PM in the eastern part of our local area. At this point, confidence is growing that the greatest chance of severe weather will be from 10AM to 5PM on Thursday, November 1. Secondary severe weather season looks to kick off with a strong line of storms!
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS… There’s also evidence this evening that rainfall totals could be a bit higher than previously suggested. Most spots across the region will likely pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain in total, meaning some spots may have some nuisance-type flash flooding issues. The greater rain amounts will likely happen east of the Alabama River in west Alabama.
SECONDARY SEVERE WEATHER SEASON… Right on cue, secondary severe weather season is kicking off November 1 and will last through December. Our primary severe weather season is in March and April. Those are the two months when tornado warnings are most likely in our local area. November and December are ranked 3rd and 4th, respectively. Don’t be surprised to hear more tornado risks in the weeks ahead. It’s a part of life around our local area in the spring and fall months.
KNOW THAT PLAN AND ACT… Now is the time to review your tornado safety plan that we preach constantly throughout the year to school kids, civic clubs, and pretty much anyone that will listen. When a tornado warning is issued, we encourage you to get to the lowest floor of a well-built, site-built structure in a small, interior room near the center of the structure. This typically means a hallway, closet, or bathroom with no windows. Mobile homes and vehicles are generally not safe during tornadoes. Those are two of the places you absolutely should NOT be during a tornado warning. Everyone should have a helmet or something sturdy to protect your head from flying debris. It looks funny, yes, but they truly are LIFE-saving! Have a way to get the warnings and then DO SOMETHING about it when the warning is issued. So many people get the warnings these days and don’t take any action. That’s a problem. TAKE ACTION when the warning is issued.
SET UP APP ALERTS… Thank you so much to the thousands of people who have downloaded and regularly use our free RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the RZW app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner of the app) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to receive straight from me.
Be sure to check back with me on Wednesday as this is an evolving severe weather setup. Further forecast refinements are possible. Let me know if you have specific questions. Have a great evening!