NO SNOW, BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEXT WEEK… The coldest temperatures of 2019 (and of this particular winter season) will happen early next week as a cold front moves by Saturday ushering in a very cold, Arctic air mass. Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s all day on Sunday, followed by the coldest night of this cold snap. The image attached is of the projected overnight lows for Monday morning, January 21. Alabama and northwest Florida will endure a hard freeze with temperatures in the 20s across our region. Central and north Alabama will almost certainly fall into the 10s.
FIRST THINGS FIRST: BUSTED FORECAST… It was a classic “forecast miss” today as we (and everyone else in the weather enterprise) called for a good bit of sunshine with highs in the mid-50s. Most spots ended up peaking in the upper-40s under overcast skies. A low deck of stratus clouds kept the entire area cooler than forecast and made for a pretty miserable day. The good news is this deck of clouds likely will break up overnight. We should get a lot more sunshine on Tuesday into Wednesday.
RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY… Our next chance of rain will happen late Thursday into Friday as temperatures warm into the 60s and potentially near 70° each day. We could have a few thunderstorms on Saturday, but the severe weather risk remains very low to near zero.
NO SNOW IN THE FORECAST… Other than a few snow flurries being possible on Sunday across north and parts of north-central Alabama, there is no snow in the forecast. The chance of snow flurries across interior regions of south Alabama will be very low (<10%) with the chance of flurries near the coast being basically zero. Long range models show more areas of low pressure developing and moving across or near our area over the next few weeks, but all of the precipitation areas are rain and not snow (even in the longer range “idea” models). Could this change? Yes, but please keep in mind that snow events are RARE for our local area. We had two snow events last winter and that’s only the second time in weather recording history (since the 1850s) that has happened. Snow is uncommon around here and there is currently none forecast to happen.
DON’T FEED THE TROLLS… It’s often the case this time of year that the clickbaiters and the “weather hype machine” on social media go absolutely crazy – posting ludicrous model images that show a snow potential for our area. Please understand that vast majority of these folks are aiming for likes, shares, and clicks. They usually a) are not meteorologists and b) don’t care if what they’re posting is accurate or not. The real headline with this next cold front won’t be snow, but clearly the very cold temperatures and very low wind chill values. Help me out in combating this nonsense by NOT sharing it.
WIND CHILL VALUES TO BE IN TEENS LOCALLY… After the passage of the cold front, there will likely be a strong north or northwest wind happening across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Combined with temperatures in the 20s and 30s late Sunday into Monday, wind chill values could easily be in the 10s. If you’re planning on hunting or being outside for another activity on Sunday evening into Monday, please bundle up and be ready for brutal cold and strong wind (not a fun combination in my experience!).
APP… We’ll be watching temperatures carefully over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download). Be sure to set up app alerts in the Alerts tab (bottom right corner of the app) once you have the RZW app downloaded.
Let me know if you have any questions. My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Tuesday morning. Enjoy your evening!