RAIN LIKELY AT TIMES TODAY; STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT… Showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day and into this evening as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. The Storm Prediction Center continues to outline much of west Alabama in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone due to the low-end risk of a few strong storms later this evening. We note that much of north Alabama has just been added into the Level 3 “enhanced risk” zone this morning. Vast majority of our local area will have rain at times today with a passing round of weakening thunderstorms this evening followed by much cooler air moving in on Friday. We also will be monitoring north Alabama and north Mississippi later today as a few, brief tornadoes and damaging wind gusts could happen there. Let’s discuss details…
WARM, WET THURSDAY; LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK… South Alabama and northwest Florida remain in the warm sector today ahead of a strong cold front moving in. This warm, moist, Gulf air will allow for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. High temperatures will peak in the upper-70s with some spots approaching 80° by 2PM. Winds will continue to be out of the south at 15-20 mph at times today. Keep the rain gear handy throughout the day, especially as we go into this evening. The risk of a few strong to severe storms will slightly increase later today across west Alabama. Details below.
LEVEL 1 RISK THIS EVENING FOR WEST ALABAMA… Much of Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo, and Wilcox counties in west Alabama are included in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid for later today when a line of strong storms may approach from the west. The rest of us in south Alabama and northwest Florida (east of the Alabama River, generally) are included in the “general thunderstorm” zone where severe weather is not likely. What does this mean? Communities like Thomasville, Coffeeville, Grove Hill, Leroy, Jackson, Chatom, Fruitdale, and Wagerville all have a low-end risk of a few strong storms this evening. The greater issues, however, are much more likely to happen well to our north.
LEVEL 3 RISK FOR NORTH ALABAMA… Isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms will be possible today across the northern part of Alabama. We note that Florence, Muscle Shoals, Russellville, Jasper, Moulton, Decatur, Huntsville, Double Springs, and Cullman are involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone as indicated on the SPC Convective Outlook. If you’re headed to any of those areas or surrounding communities, be aware that a few severe storms may happen later today that could produce tornadoes and/or damaging straight line winds.
COOLER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY MORNING… The storms today and tonight (and extending into Friday morning) are in response to a strong cold front moving our way. This front will cool temperatures off quite a bit on Friday morning. Most spots will start near 70° and end up in the 50s and 60s by mid-afternoon.
FEW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING… Rain may happen early Saturday morning before several days of drier weather. The showers Saturday morning should be scattered and move to our east by 10AM on Saturday morning. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s.
DRY FEW DAYS AFTER SATURDAY… For the first time in quite some time, models are indicating a drier, more calm weather pattern for the upcoming week. Temperatures Sunday through Wednesday look seasonal with highs in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s.
APP… I’ll have plenty of updates later today in the RedZone Weather app as needed. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download.
See all the graphics and forecast details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video… Let me know if you have any questions. Enjoy the day!