4:33PM April 16, 2019

SPECIAL OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO LEVEL 3 FOR THURSDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has issued a special early evening update to upgrade much of southern Mississippi, eastern Louisiana, and parts of far western Alabama into their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone valid for Thursday. SPC notes that supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening, mainly across eastern Louisiana and the southern half of Mississippi. If supercells develop, they will form out ahead of a developing QLCS/squall line that ultimately will move across our local area late Thursday evening or in the very early morning of Friday morning. Parts of Washington, Choctaw, and Sumter counties in west Alabama are included in this higher Level 3 risk zone.

NEW: TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY EVENING… This has changed somewhat since this morning. The severe weather risk window will be from 6PM Thursday to 3AM on Friday across south Alabama and northwest Florida, with the core risk being from 9PM to 1AM. It looks like we will be up late monitoring storms, meaning we all will need a way to get warnings before we go to sleep!

SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS THURSDAY EVENING… The latest model indications point to a strong to potentially severe line of thunderstorms moving through Thursday evening into Friday morning. This means the squall line of storms (QLCS) will likely be our main concern in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Supercell thunderstorms that develop out ahead of the main line of storms will also be a concern, thus slightly increasing the risk of tornadoes. At this point, the core of the tornado risk looks to set up just to our west, but unfortunately we could potentially have a few tornadoes locally as well.

LEVEL 3 RISK ZONE… Let me stress that ALL of us across Alabama and northwest Florida have at least some risk of tornadoes and damaging winds on Thursday, but clearly the greater risk will happen over west Alabama. For now, parts of Washington, Choctaw, and Sumter counties are involved in the higher Level 3 risk zone. Places like Gilbertown, Melvin, Pushmataha, Yantley, Cuba, Millry, Needham, and Chapel Hill are included in the Level 3 risk zone.

LEVEL 2 RISK FOR EVERYONE ELSE… All of the major population areas in our local area are included in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone valid for Thursday. Mobile, Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, Crestview, Milton, Berrydale, Jay, Century, Molino, Gulf Breeze, Foley, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Bayou La Batre, Citronelle, Chatom, Wagerville, Leroy, Jackson, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Evergreen, Repton, Castleberry, Greenville, Georgiana, Andalusia, Opp, and Florala are all included in this Level 2 risk area.

APP ALERTS… Be sure to download the RedZone Weather app if you haven’t already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of app) then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to get straight from me.

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