COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN: STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY & SUNDAY… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Saturday as a stalled cold front to our northwest continues to give us “forecast fits.” While most spots were dry on Friday, there were a few showers and thunderstorms over west Alabama as recently as last evening. Choctaw, Clarke, Washington, and Monroe counties have the greatest chance of experiencing rain and storms today and into tonight. Those counties are also where the severe weather risk will be highest today into tonight, although we note that even in those counties, the risk remains very low. Due to the nature of the weather pattern we are in, I can’t say 100% that all areas across our region will be without a severe storm at some point this weekend. The overall severe weather risk remains LOW, but it is not zero. Sunday will likely be a very wet day with scattered to numerous showers and storms around. Let’s look at a few details…
60-80% CHANCE OF SHOWERS & STORMS TODAY… Keep the rain gear handy today as showers and thunderstorms will likely pop up later this afternoon into this evening if it is not raining in your specific location this morning. There already have been scattered showers across west Alabama and much of the area with more likely on the way later today. High temperatures will peak in the mid-80s this afternoon around 3PM.
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS: WEST ALABAMA… Due to projected rain amounts of 2-3” in total over the next 24 hours, there is a concern that we could have some isolated instances of flash flooding across west Alabama. The risk for flash flooding will be greatest in communities along and WEST of the Alabama River.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS VERY LOW… The Storm Prediction Center has included much of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone. Much of southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana is included in the slightly higher Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone today. Let me stress that the overall tornado risk for any given spot across our region remains VERY, very low. This is a frustrating situation, though, as the severe weather risk is very low but not quite zero. It’s not a clear situation where severe weather will happen, or if the risk will even materialize. I would much rather be able to tell you, “Yes there is a tornado risk” or “No, there is no tornado risk” but we truly are in the middle of those two statements today. “Odds are we won’t have any tornado issues at all, however there is a very low chance of a few stronger storms this afternoon/evening, especially over west Alabama.”
HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES ON SUNDAY… Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely on Sunday. We’ve set rain chances in the 80-90% range, for now. Be sure to keep the rain gear handy on Sunday as widespread rain is likely. There will be some breaks in the rain, but most of us will be quite wet throughout the day. The Storm Prediction Center includes ALL of the local area in their Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Sunday. The cold front draped to our northwest will finally begin to move through our area on Sunday, thus bringing an end to any risk of severe weather. This will probably happen Sunday evening. Depending on cloud cover/rainfall, there is a good chance that most spots won’t be able to hit the 80 degree mark on Sunday afternoon. Most spots will be stuck in the 70s all day. If we can get some sunshine breaking out in the middle of the day, temperatures may rise to 80°.
DRIER WEEK AHEAD… Monday is slated to be sunny and nice. High temperatures will peak in the low-80s. While some weather models hinted at the possibility for a few showers on Tuesday, the latest data continues to suggest dry conditions with mostly cloudy skies. High temperatures will be in the 80s on Wednesday and Thursday with overnight lows around 60°.
Let me know if you have questions. Have a great Saturday!