POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #9 FORMS… The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone #9, located over the central Bahamas. This system will probably become a tropical depression tonight or tomorrow as it moves to the northwest. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the northern Bahamas, the same islands that were decimated by Hurricane Dorian only a few weeks ago. Some big model trend changes to pass along today. Let’s look at details…
LATEST MODEL TRENDS SHIFT EASTWARD… The last two runs of the ECMWF/Euro model have shifted substantially to the east. We also note the American-based GFS model now shows a tropical storm that parallels the east coast of Florida as opposed to moving into the Gulf of Mexico. We note, however, that a low-level center of circulation has NOT formed. Thus, more major forecast changes are possible in the hours ahead.
I’ll have a more detailed update about this developing tropical storm a bit later. Obviously if this newer forecast trend verifies, impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida would largely be mitigated.