LONG POST: SEVERE STORMS LIKELY MONDAY P.M. INTO EARLY TUESDAY… Tornadoes and damaging winds will be possible Monday into early Tuesday as a potent weather system moves across south Alabama and northwest Florida. A Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk is in place for parts of west Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana with the nearly all of our local area involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk.There is some concern we could have supercell thunderstorms as early as Monday afternoon, but that is a low confidence scenario. The bigger concern with much higher confidence is that we will have severe storms Monday night into early Tuesday morning. This severe weather episode will likely manifest in the form of a strong to severe line of storms with embedded supercellular-like structures. What does this mean for you? It means we all have a risk of experiencing damaging straight line wind gusts with a chance of a few isolated tornadoes Monday into Tuesday morning. The big takeaway is we encourage everyone to have a way to get the urgent weather warnings that may be needed tomorrow! NOW is the time to make sure you have a way to get the warnings. Once a warning is issued, please do something about it and get to a safe place. That is the summary, below are extensive details.
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT; STORMS MONDAY… If you’ve stepped outside today, you know it’s far too warm for a mid-December day. High temperatures are peaking in the low-70s across our area. No significant weather issues are expected until Monday afternoon other than areas of dense fog being possible tonight into Monday.
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY… There is a chance we could have some early morning small showers in place across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Instability should be too low to allow for any severe weather before Noon on Monday.
STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON… We note that some of the higher-resolution weather models are showing a potential for strong to severe storms to fire up Monday afternoon, well in advance of the main line of storms that is set to move through much later. IF this scenario happens, we would have to monitor for the potential for tornadoes and large hail in these discrete, isolated storms. While this potential is low confidence, it is still worth mentioning as the tornado risk would ramp up considerably for our area if this indeed happens. The overall severe weather risk later Monday into Tuesday has much higher confidence. The big headline here is we could potentially have multiple waves of severe weather with one happening Monday afternoon, then a longer duration wave Monday night into early Tuesday.
ISOLATED TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS ARE MAIN CONCERNS… The tornado risk locally Monday evening into Tuesday early morning will be highest across parts of Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, and Marengo counties where a “greater combination of atmospheric ingredients” looks to set up. If you’re in these counties, be aware that your tornado potential looks a bit higher. We ALL, however, have at least some risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. There also could be some large hail involved in the stronger storms. Flash flooding could briefly become an issue as the main line of storms passes through our region. ALL modes of severe weather will be possible with this event!
UPDATED: TIMING OF SEVERE STORMS & RAIN CHANCES… This has changed somewhat since last night. There is now a LOW confidence, conditional risk of severe storms from 1PM to 6PM Monday. If any storms happen Monday afternoon (and that’s a big IF at this point), they likely would come to an end in the early evening. We get a lull in the action until the late evening hours. 9PM Monday to 9AM Tuesday looks to be the 12 hour window when the main line of storms will move across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Core timeframe looks to be from 11PM Monday to 5AM Tuesday. Rain showers may happen earlier Monday evening and extend into Tuesday afternoon long after the severe weather risk has come to an end. Be sure to check back with me for updates Monday morning on the evolving severe weather timing!
UPDATED: LEVEL 3 RISK FOR WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA… The Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone includes areas near Butler, Pennington, Demopolis, Eutaw, Livingston, Reform, Gordo, York, Geiger, Forkland, and surrounding areas in west-central Alabama. Jackson (MS), Baton Rouge, Hattiesburg, Meridian, Alexandria (LA) are also included in this higher Level 3 risk zone. This enhanced risk is used by the Storm Prediction Center to designate where the better combination of “severe weather ingredients” is set to come together.
UPDATED: LEVEL 2 RISK FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA… Vast majority of our local area in south Alabama remains included in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk for severe storms. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Milton, Pace, Pensacola Beach, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Fairhope, Foley, Daphne, Loxley, Silverhill, Bay Minette, Thomasville, Jackson, Grove Hill, Chatom, Leroy, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lyeffion, Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Flomaton, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Andalusia, Carolina, River Falls, Molino, Jay, and Century are all included in this Level 2 risk, where isolated severe storms may happen. We note much of central and north Alabama is also included in this risk zone. Birmingham, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Selma, Camden, Prattville, Clanton, Hoover, Centreville, Cullman, Jasper, Boaz, Oneonta, Fayette, Russellville, Decatur, Muscle Shoals, Florence, and Hamilton are involved in the Level 2 risk area.
NEW: LEVEL 1 RISK FOR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR AREA… SPC has decided to lower parts of Covington, Okaloosa, and Santa Rosa into the lower-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk. We note that all of southeast Alabama near Dothan, Enterprise, and Geneva is also included in this zone. This includes areas like Destin, Crestview, Laurel Hill, Opp, Florala, Navarre, Geneva, Enterprise, Elba, Daleville, Dothan, Fort Rucker, Eglin AFB, Eufaula, and Auburn (AL).
SHARPLY COLDER ON TUESDAY… The cold front partially responsible for all of this severe weather action will move through our region on Tuesday morning behind the main line of storms. Temperatures will turn sharply colder throughout the day on Tuesday. The technical high temperature on Tuesday will happen just after midnight, with temperatures declining all day. We’ll be in the 40s across south Alabama and northwest Florida by Tuesday afternoon, falling into the upper-30s by the late evening hours.
COOL, DRY MIDWEEK; BELOW FREEZING IN EARLY MORNING HOURS… Cold, dry air will have an unfettered path into our region from the northwest after the passage of the cold front this week. We expect multiple nights with below freezing temperatures. See the 7 Day Forecast graphic in the attached video for more info.
MORE RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY… Our next chance of rain after Tuesday looks to be Friday into Saturday when we could have a few showers around. We’ll focus on this weather system more in the days ahead.
APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day on Monday in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
See all of the many details and graphics in your Sunday #rzw forecast video. Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Be sure to check back with me Monday morning for the very latest on this developing severe weather situation.